Aging Capriciously

Happy Holidays:

1989 年，在天安门事件前两周，Karen 和我前往中国旅行。我们没有参加旅行团、没有宗教任务，也不是任何形式的跟团度假。我们自己买机票、自己订酒店，并在一位中国朋友的协助下制定了属于我们自己的旅行路线。我们的旅程从上海开始，接着去了苏州、黄山，再从黄山到南京，最后回到上海。我们乘坐过公共汽车、火车、汽车，甚至在苏州租过自行车骑行。

我并不声称自己看过多少中国。严格来说，我们能看到的可能也就占中国的 10% 而已。我们没有见到所有中国人，也没有住在普通的中国旅馆。因为我们是外国人，只能住当时称为“侨汇旅馆”的地方，我们手中的钱也必须兑换成外汇券，而不是人民币。我们一路上到处步行，参观过公园、医院、乘船游览长江，去过露天市场（也称“菜市场”或“湿货市场”），还曾与一路上结识的当地人共进晚餐，当然也拜访了佛教寺院。

有一天，我们在南京逛街时遇到一个街头节庆活动。我出于好奇，拿起一支 .22 口径的小步枪在摊位前射击几个靶子。不用说，Karen 和我在这样的场景里显得颇为引人注目。周围的人纷纷围上来看我射击。无论我们走到哪里，总会吸引不少好奇的眼神。人们会主动过来和我们聊天，有时甚至会围成一大圈与我们交谈。

那天正好有一队士兵路过，他们也好奇地靠近观察。带队的士兵礼貌地问：“你们从哪里来？”“为什么来中国？”这些都很普通。突然，一个年轻士兵问：“你们现在的总统是谁？”我回答：“乔治·布什。”年轻士兵马上说：“你们的总统很差劲。”我脱口而出：“你们的总统也很差劲。”那一秒钟，所有人都屏住呼吸——尤其是 Karen。这又是我典型的“说话先于思考”的时刻。但突然另一个士兵笑着喊：“他说得对！我们的总统也很差劲！”人群随即大笑，互相拥抱后士兵们继续上路。我长舒一口气——心想自己差点因为一句玩笑话进了中国监狱。

在整个旅程中，所有中国人都对我们非常友善、礼貌。我们从未遇到任何麻烦。风景美丽，食物更是令人难忘，但最重要的是我们一路上遇到的那些可爱的人们。后来我们与一对来自上海的年轻夫妇成了挚友，他们在旅途中帮助我们处理一些习俗和规定方面的问题。那对夫妇（傅希波和 Mary 希波）后来在我们的资助下移民美国，如今与女儿、女婿和三个外孙居住在加州。我们每隔几年就会去看望他们。

现在，我想说说这篇祝贺信的核心。我对中国怀有深深的敬意。中国是世界伟大的国家之一，而且比我们的国家伟大得更为长久。我也同样尊重中国人民。用穆罕默德·阿里的话来说，没有一个中国人吐过我口水、抢劫过我，或骂过我混蛋。中国和美国从未互相开战。虽然我们曾在两场战争中站在对立面，但我们从未入侵中国，中国也从未入侵我们。在过去五十年里，中国发动的战争远远少于美国。人工智能系统给出如下对比数据：

基于保守定义的“入侵”比较：

• 中国（PRC）：0 次（无重大正式入侵或吞并，但有过边境冲突）
• 美国：数十次——视定义而定，大致在 20 到 40 次之间。

事实上，中国对美国人民生活水平的提升发挥了重要作用。以下是中国帮助美国经济增长和繁荣的五项主要贡献：

中国的贡献	带给美国经济的益处
低成本制造业	提升美国消费者购买力；降低通胀
支持美国企业供应链	提高美国企业利润、估值与高技能就业机会
大量采购美国出口产品	支持农业、航空业、高科技与服务业
购买美国国债	帮助维持低利率，使联邦政府能够投资公共项目
创新压力 + 制造规模	加速美国科技发展与全球竞争力

尽管中美之间存在明显的互惠关系，但近年来美国出版了大量“反华书籍”，例如《即将到来的对华战争》《百年马拉松：中国取代美国的秘密战略》《我为什么讨厌共产主义中国》等。此外，美国主流媒体常常夸大甚至煽动与中国有关的最微小的负面新闻，使中国看起来不堪入目。比如，最近一场对失控飘过美国的中国气象气球的巨大恐慌——我已经在一篇名为《气球来了！气球来了！》的博客中批评过这种荒唐的反应。

还有我们那些善于用“替罪羊”转移注意力的政客们。如今，中国恰好成为他们最方便使用的靶子——民主党和共和党都不例外。我们可以看看最近他们的一些言论：

共和党政客：

1. 田纳西州众议员 Andy Ogles：
   “中国共产党是我们面临的最大外国威胁……”
2. 新泽西州参议员 Doug Steinhardt：
   “让像中国这样的敌对政府渗透我们的技术和能源网络……构成严重且日益增长的国家安全威胁。”
3. 俄亥俄州众议员 Mike Turner：
   “很明确，TikTok 是国家安全威胁。”

民主党政客：

1. 参议院多数党领袖 Chuck Schumer：
   “中国共产党会不择手段窃取我们的知识产权并破坏美国经济……”
2. 弗吉尼亚州参议员 Mark Warner：
   “我们不断看到中国共产党在包括金融领域在内的多个方面对美国表现出日益增强的攻击性。”
3. 俄勒冈州参议员 Jeff Merkley：
   “美国在面对中国时不能软弱……”

我不希望看到美国与中国发生任何军事或经济上的战争。Karen 不希望。我认识的人当中，没有一个希望看到这种战争。

美国民意调查普遍显示：大多数美国民众希望减少紧张、加强合作，而不是走向冲突。

然而，这并不意味着所有人都是和平主义者——一旦涉及台湾或军事威慑，民意往往变得复杂、情境化。但总体而言，美国公众更倾向外交与接触，而非战争与敌意。

公众是务实的；而我们的政客却常常不是。

回到气球事件。当时，美国国务卿已经 五年 没有访问过中国。然而，布林肯却因为一个气象气球取消了已经安排好的外交访问。如果这个气球真的是中国怀有恶意的严重入侵，那么还有比亲自面谈更好的讨论方式吗？可是，布林肯选择了取消访问。这算什么外交？甚至他部门里的专业人士也质疑这一决定的明智性。美国防务官员也承认，这个气球虽然用于侦测，但并不构成立即威胁——这意味着美国完全可以在保持沟通的前提下处理事件，而不是切断外交渠道。

结论：

我对中国最深刻的记忆从来不是敌意，而是那些普通人——好奇、友善、慷慨，并且同我们一样为家庭、为未来怀抱希望。我的人生经历、我认识的所有人，都没有理由去准备一场对中国的战争。美国民调也清楚地显示，大多数美国人倾向合作、对话与和平竞争。

但我们的领导人——无论民主党还是共和党——却总是喜欢把小火星吹成大火焰。一只漂移的气象气球被渲染成国家危机。一场期待已久的外交访问被演变成政治作秀。当布林肯五年来第一次有机会与中国领导层面对面时，他却取消了访问——偏偏是在最需要外交的时候。这不是力量，而是目光短浅。

如果中国与美国确实是 21 世纪的两大强国，那么我们真正面对的问题不是谁将称霸，而是我们能否在不互相毁灭的情况下共存。我的经历告诉我：我们可以。美国人民在不被政治操弄时也相信：我们可以。如果我们的领导人能够重新找到真正的勇气——不是威胁的勇气，而是交流的勇气——也许我们仍然能够做到。

如果我的旅行（包括我去过的 42 个国家）教会我一件事，那就是：全世界的人们都渴望相同的东西——家庭的安全、工作的尊严、对未来的希望。当我们忘记这一点时，政客们就更容易把陌生人变成“敌人”；当我们想起这一点时，和平就变得更可能。如果两个旅行者能在南京尘土飞扬的道路上为各自的总统开玩笑大笑，那么两个伟大的国家也一定能在选择冲突之前找到对话的方式。

For those of you who do not understand Chinese, I will publish this blog in English or American as they call it in England in a few days.  In the meantime, this blog is meant for all the people in China or all the Chinese people in the world.

节日快乐

John and Karen

Happy Holiday Greetings to All My Friends In China and Around the World

In 1989, two weeks before Tiananmen, Karen and I went to visit China.  We did not go on a tour or a mission trip or any kind of guided vacation.  We bought our own tickets, scheduled our own hotels and developed (with the help of a Chinese friend) our own travel itinerary.  We started off in Shanghai, went on to Suzhou, then to Huang Shan.  From Huang Shan, we went to Nanjing and then back to Shanghai.  We traveled by bus, train, car and even by bicycles which we rented while in Suzhou. 

Now I am not claiming to have seen much of China.  I would say we might have seen 10 percent of the country at most.  We did not meet every Chinese person, and we did not stay in regular Chinese hotels.  Because we were foreigners, we stayed in what were called “Overseas Chinese Hotels” and our money was converted to FEC’s and not Renminbi.  We did lots of foot travels and we visited parks, hospitals, a boat trip on the Yangtze river, open air markets (or what might be called wet markets), several dinners with local Chinese that we met during our travels, and of course Buddhist Monasteries.  

One day while we were in Nanjing we stopped at a street festival; I took the liberty of shooting a 22 rifle at several targets in the bazaar.  Needless to say, Karen and I were peculiar.  People surrounded us as I was shooting.  Wherever we went we drew curious looks or stares.  People took the opportunity to come up and talk to us.  Sometimes entire groups would gather around us and start chatting with us.  

On this particular day a group of soldiers walking by came up to observe us.  The leader started a polite conversation with the questions,  “Where are you from?”  “What brings you to China.”  Nothing out of the ordinary in terms of questions.  Suddenly, one young soldier asked us, “Who is your president now?” I replied “George Bush.”  To which the young soldier responded, “Your President sucks.”  Without thinking I replied, “Your President sucks too.”  For a second, everyone (but most of all I think Karen) held their breath.  Another example of my speaking before thinking.  Then one of the soldiers shouted “He is right!  Our President sucks too.”  Everyone broke out laughing and with hugs all around the soldiers went on their way.  I breathed a sigh of relief thinking that we just might end up in a Chinese prison. 

Everywhere we traveled Chinese people were kind and polite to us.  Not once did we experience any trouble from anyone.  The scenery was great; the food was even better but the best thing of all were the wonderful people we met on our journey.  We eventually became very good friends with a young couple from Shanghai who helped us navigate some of the customs and legalities we would face on our trip.  The couple (Fu Xibo and Mary Xibo) eventually emigrated to the USA under our sponsorship and now live in California with their daughter, son-in-law and three grandchildren.  We visit them every few years or so. 

Now I would like to come to the point of this greeting.  I have nothing but respect for China.  They are one of the great nations of the world.  They have been a great nation for many more years than our great nation.  I have nothing but respect for the Chinese people.  To paraphrase Muhammed Ali, no Chinese person has ever spit on me, robbed me or called me an asshole.  China and the USA have never had a war together.  We have been on opposite sides of at least two wars but never have we invaded China or they invaded us.  China has in fact committed far fewer invasions in the past fifty years than we have.  An AI comparison gives the following data:

Working Comparison (using a conservative definition of “invasion”)

Country           Estimated # of other sovereign states invaded (past 50 years)

China (PRC)     0 (major formal invasions / annexations) — though border clashes occurred.

United States (USA)    Dozens — likely somewhere between 20 and 40, depending on what counts as an invasion.

In fact, China, has had a significant positive influence on the standard of living in the USA.  Here are five major roles that China has played in helping the US Economy to grow and in fact thrive:

Chinese Contributions	That Have Helped the U.S. Economy

 

Lower-cost manufacturing

Boosted consumer purchasing power; reduced inflation

 

Supply chains for U.S. corporations

Increased profits, valuations, and job creation in high-skill sectors

 

Massive purchases of American exports

Supported agriculture, aviation, high-tech, and       services

 

Financing of U.S. government debt

Kept interest rates low, enabling federal investment

 

Innovation pressure + manufacturing scale

Accelerated U.S. tech development and global competitiveness

Despite the evident synergy between the USA and China, the last few years has seen a proliferation of anti-China books with such titles as “The Coming War with China,” “The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower” and “Why I Hate Communist China.”  Not only has there been a book blitz blasting China but the mainstream media in the USA does nothing but fan even the slightest ember into a raging blaze to make China look bad.  A recent example was the furor over a Chinese weather balloon that went out of control and flew over the USA.  I wrote about this ridiculous excuse for panic in a blog called “The Balloons are Coming.  The Balloons are Coming.”  Last but not least by a long shot are our politicians who like nothing better than to stir up a frenzy and divert attentions from their own shortcomings by creating a scapegoat.  Today China seems to fit the bill for far too many of our politicians on both sides of the aisle.  Witness some of the following statements that made the press:

Republican politicians

1. Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN, U.S. House)

“The Chinese Communist Party is the greatest foreign adversary we face…” Industrial Cyber

• Source: Industrial Cyber, “House Republicans reintroduce bill to counter Chinese cyber threats to critical infrastructure,” April 9, 2025. Industrial Cyber

2. Sen. Doug Steinhardt (R-NJ, New Jersey State Senate)

“Allowing hostile foreign governments like China to…penetrate our technology and energy networks is…a serious and growing national security threat.” Senate NJ

• Source: New Jersey Senate GOP “News Flash,” “Steinhardt Responds to Discovery of Chinese Communist Party Spy Tech in Solar Infrastructure,” May 14, 2025. Senate NJ

3. Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH, U.S. House)

“Let’s be clear. TikTok is absolutely a national security threat.” CBS News

• Source: CBS News, “Rep. Mike Turner says TikTok ‘remains a national security threat,’” Jan. 26, 2025. CBS News

Democratic politicians

1. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY, Senate Majority Leader)

“The Chinese Communist Party has shown they will stop at nothing to steal our intellectual property and undermine the American economy…” Senate Democratic Leadership

• Source: Senate Democratic Caucus press release, “Majority Leader Schumer Statement On New Biden Administration Tariffs On Chinese EVs,” May 14, 2024. Senate Democratic Leadership

 2. Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA)

“We continue to see increased aggression from the Chinese Communist Party towards the United States, including in the financial sector.” warner.senate.gov

• Source: Office of Sen. Mark R. Warner, “Warner, Colleagues Introduce Bipartisan Legislation to Respond to Financial Threats from [Chinese] Communist Party of China,” Mar. 25, 2025. warner.senate.gov

3. Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR)

“The United States cannot afford to be weak in the face of the People’s Republic of China and its aggression around the world.” Reuters

• Source: Reuters, “US Democrats, Republicans plan bills to pressure China as Trump pushes trade,” July 29, 2025. Reuters

I don’t want to see a war with China either a military or economic war.  Karen does not want to see a war with China.  None of the people that I know want to see a war with China. 

Polls / Surveys Showing Desire to Avoid War or Conflict with China

• According to a 2025 survey by Chicago Council on Global Affairs / affiliated public-opinion research, a majority of Americans (53%) now say the U.S. should pursue “friendly cooperation and engagement” with China — rather than focusing primarily on limiting China’s power. Chicago Council on Global Affairs+2Facebook+2
• A 2025 poll (conducted by American Friends Service Committee (AFSC) with The Harris Poll) found that 63% of U.S. adults say the U.S. government should engage in dialogue with China as much as possible to reduce tensions. American Friends Service Committee
• In a 2024 poll by Defense Priorities: 44% of respondents agreed that, “avoiding war with China is more important than Taiwan’s political autonomy.” Only 30% said the U.S. should defend Taiwan if China invaded (given the potential costs).

What This Means:

It appears that a substantial portion of Americans prefer diplomacy, engagement, or at least avoiding military escalation with China rather than confrontation — particularly when asked about general U.S.–China relations or abstract conflict avoidance.  But that doesn’t necessarily translate into blanket pacifism: sentiment depends heavily on the scenario (e.g., Taiwan defense, blockade, economic pressure), and many Americans remain concerned about China’s power — so support for defensive/military or economic pressure measures can still be high.

In short: there’s no single “the public wants war / doesn’t want war” view — the public is split and often situationally pragmatic, tending toward cooperation or deterrence rather than aggressive conflict in many contexts.  It should be noted that too often what drives public opinion is the sloppy political thinking by our so-called elected leaders.  I have already mentioned that too often they use China as a scapegoat.  Many Americans are brainwashed by politicians into believing that they should fear or hate China. 

Referring again to the balloon incident.  An American Secretary of State (who should be a source of diplomacy) had not been to China in five years.  Nevertheless, Blinken cancelled a planned diplomatic trip to Beijing because of the Balloon.  Now if this was an intended serious breach of American airspace with any hostile intentions by the Chinese, what better time to discuss it than Secretary Blinken had.  But instead, he cancels his planned trip.  What the f—k kind of diplomacy is that?   Even people in his department questioned the wisdom of canceling his trip.  The fact that defense officials acknowledged the balloon as surveillance — but also assessed it was not an immediate physical threat — suggests the U.S. had room to respond without severing diplomatic ties or canceling ongoing communication. 

Conclusions:

In the end, my memories of China are not of enemies or adversaries but of ordinary people—curious, kind, generous, and as hopeful for their families as we are for ours.  Nothing in my life, nothing in the lives of the people I know, suggests that we should be preparing for war with China.  And the polls confirm it: most Americans prefer cooperation, dialogue, and peaceful competition.  Yet time and again our leaders—Democrats and Republicans alike—inflate every spark into a firestorm.  A drifting weather balloon becomes a national panic.  A long-overdue diplomatic visit becomes a stage for political theatrics.  When Secretary Blinken had the first opportunity in five years to speak face-to-face with Chinese leaders, he cancelled the trip—precisely when diplomacy was most needed.  That is not strength; it is shortsightedness.

If China and the United States truly are the two great powers of the 21st century, then the question is not who will dominate, but whether we can coexist without destroying one another.  My experience tells me we can.  The American people, when not being manipulated by fear, believe we can.  And if our leaders ever rediscover courage—not the courage to threaten, but the courage to engage—perhaps we still will.

If there is one lesson I carried home from China and my trips to 44 other countries, it is that people everywhere want the same things: safety for their families, dignity in their work, and a future worth believing in.  The farther we drift from that truth, the easier it becomes for politicians to turn strangers into enemies.  But the closer we come to remembering it, the more possible peace becomes.  If travelers on a dusty road in Nanjing could laugh together about their presidents, surely two great nations can find a way to talk before they choose to fight.