Only Time for Politics: Political Predictions for 2012

What would a blog on Time be without some predictions for the New Year? Herewith are my 3 predictions for the New Year. As you may have already surmised, they will all concern politics. I will give you my predictions and then a brief explanation as to my underlying assumptions. Feel free to take the poll that I am attaching to this blog and let me know what you think. Scroll to the bottom of these blogs and you will find two quick polls.

Prediction:

More money will be spent on the 2012 political campaign than has ever been spent before on any election. Mitt Romney will emerge victorious as the Republican candidate.

Assumptions:

1. The Republicans will not sacrifice their desire to see President Obama defeated merely to appease the more conservative sector of their party. We have already seen the “Tea Party” favorite Bachman drop out with little support.

2. Money talks. Mitt has more money than anyone else and his funds will feed ads that will continue to sway voters. In auto racing land, they say “Win on Sunday, Sell on Monday.” In politics land, it is “Advertise on Sunday and numbers change on Monday.” A true testament to the fickleness of the American Public. Also amazing how many people I know who say they make up their own minds and that ads have no influence over their choices.

Prediction:

The 2012 Congress will make the 2011 Congress look good. This will be the most acrimonious partisan get nothing done congress in the entire history of the USA.

Assumptions:

1. The Republicans will do everything they can to deny President Obama any chance to look good or to accomplish anything.

2. Obama will be viewed as a lame duck with the approaching elections and will need to spend more time trying to get re-elected then fighting for any bills or changes.

3. The Democrats will see no need to compromise for fear of associating too strongly with a president who might just become more unpopular or unseated.

Prediction:

President Barack Obama will narrowly win reelection to a second term.

Assumptions:

1. Even without the efforts of a “do nothing” congress, the economy will continue to get better and jobs will grow taking much pressure off of Obama.

2. The majority of Obama’s policies have been to benefit the American people and the majority of the people will realize that he has not been pushing special interests to benefit friends and family.

Well, there you have it. In black and white, I doubt I could be more specific. Unlike horoscopes, tea leaves and crystal balls, I have set my theories down and am open to being either right or wrong. You will find few talking heads who will so commit themselves to concrete specifics as I have now done. It will be interesting to look back on these predictions in 12 months and see how they fare.

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5 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. Robert Hilstrom
    Jan 06, 2012 @ 16:37:37

    Right on John!

    Reply

  2. John Persico
    Jan 06, 2012 @ 22:05:21

    Thanks Rob, we shall see how right on I am.

    Reply

  3. bgalbreath
    Jan 09, 2012 @ 14:50:24

    “Even without the efforts of a “do nothing” congress, the economy will continue to get better”

    Or maybe because of their non-efforts things will get better. Some historians (Amity Shlaes for one) argue fairly convincingly that the Great Depression would have ended much sooner if it were not for the governments constant (yet ever changing) efforts to “do something”. There was an even worse economic downturn (in percentage terms) in 1921 that ended quickly when Harding refused to take government action to combat it.

    Reply

  4. John Persico
    Jan 09, 2012 @ 16:11:19

    Good point Bruce, I always liked Edmund Burke's quote that the government that governs best is the government that governs least

    Reply

  5. John Persico
    Nov 07, 2012 @ 10:32:13

    Reply

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