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Every time you turn around today there is an “Expert Saying.” Saying this and saying that. Telling you what to do. Telling you what to wear. Telling you how to think. Telling you what to eat.
I wonder “Does anyone else hate these experts as much as I do? Is it just jealousy on my part that a 22 year old social media influencer on YouTube or Instagram is now considered an “Expert?” Just this morning I heard of a new class of experts on social media to which you absolutely must listen. I will describe them later in this blog.
A few weeks ago, a Social Media Hiker Influencer was hiking in the Superstition Mountains equipped with her ever present cell phone and Selfie Stick taking pictures of her hiking the trails. She was someone that other would be hikers looked up to for her expertise. Young, lean, sexy, and self-assured, she was narrating from a trail. As some point, she quit narrating and they found her body up on the trail the next day dead from heat exhaustion. Ms. Social Media Hiking “Expert” apparently never learned that Arizona heat can be deadly.
Now I am saddened that she came to such an end, but I am also saddened by the people that were following her. If her knowledge of hiking essentials was this poor, I feel even sorrier for the deluded fans that regarded her as their “Expert.”
Once upon a time, I was regarded as an “Expert.” A book on management consulting listed me as one of the top Labor Management Consultants in the USA. I was surprised to come across this commendation as I was definitely unaware that I ranked this highly. How they came to this conclusion will forever be one of the many mysteries of my life.
We used to joke in the consulting firm where I worked that an “Expert” was a man or woman fifty miles from home with a briefcase. I remember one consultant I met who had worked with Ernst and Young. They sent him out to a firm to help them develop self-managed work teams. Self-managed work teams were all the rage at the time and Earl became their in-house “Expert.” The only problem was that Earl did not know what a ‘”self-managed work team” was. As Earl went off to his consulting engagement, his company handed him a recent book that was the “bible” for self-managed work teams. They told Earl to read the book before he got to California so that he would know what to do.
I am now seventy-nine years old. When I was thirty and forty, I actually thought I was an “Expert.” Not only was I an “Expert,” but I was also an “Expert” in many different areas of life. The proof was that companies were paying me for my expertise. You wanted advice, I would like to give it to you. Back in the nineties, it would only cost you $2500 a day for my expertise.
Today, I lack the courage to give almost any advice except perhaps in my blogs where I am shielded from immediate scrutiny. I know I cannot bear to look back upon my twenty or so years of consulting and reflect on the “expertise” I shared. If I could, I would give all of my thirty-two clients a rebate or maybe even all their money back. But brother, I was the “Expert” and even a freight train or Spider Man could not stop me from telling everyone else what they must do.
As puzzled as I am by my former hubris, I am even more puzzled at all the people tuning in to get their daily dose of “expertise” from talk shows, media influencers, scientists, doctors, politicians, and lawyers. Here is one example. Since the start of our war on Iran, have you noticed how many “Experts” are telling us what is happening and what will happen?
As soon as I thought of this issue, I knew I would call upon Metis, my AI assistant for help. I gave her the following prompt:
“Metis, this is going to be a tough question for you. I only need a rough estimate or ballpark figure. I want to know how many military analysts, policy analysts and government state department analysts have spoken out on the Iranian conflict since it started? I know that is a tough question, but I just want a general number for an article I am working on about Experts.”
Here was her reply:
You’re right—that’s a very hard question to answer precisely. There is no official count, because “analysts speaking out” includes:
- TV commentators
- Think tank fellows
- academic experts
- retired military officers
- government/former State Department officials
- journalists doing analysis
So, the best we can do is build a reasonable, evidence-based estimate.
- Think tank participation alone is already large
- A single Atlantic Council feature included 20+ experts answering questions on the war
- RAND Corporation published a panel with 9 named experts
- Center for Strategic and International Studies regularly publishes multi-expert analyses
👉 That is already 30–50 “Experts” from just a handful of institutions
And there are dozens of major think tanks in Washington and globally, many funded and active in Iran policy debates
OK, thank you Metis. I get the picture. There are possibly hundreds if not thousands of “Experts” and analysts (same thing in my mind) ready, willing, and able to give you the inside story. The whole scoop. The truth and nothing but the truth. What do these platoons and squadron and legions of “Experts” get out of all this? Another mystery? Perhaps there is a fortune to be made in being an “Expert?”
By the way, for those of you who know AI, you are probably wondering what the bottom line was. Ok, so here is the final figure that Metis gave in response to my query:
Bottom-line “headline” number
👉 A realistic ballpark:
~500 to 2,000 analysts have publicly commented on the Iran conflict so far.
Just imagine if this war goes on for another year! How many “Experts” will have told you what was going to happen or what did happen. One of my favorite “Expert” lines goes like this: Interrogator: “So what do you think will be the result of all the bombs we are dropping on Iran?” “Expert” Analyst “Well, it all depends. It might make a significant difference on what Iran does next, or it might not. I think we will just have to wait and see.”
My wife Karen tells me that many social media “Experts” or influencers do not work for a salary, but they are often gifted for the products or services they promote. I mentioned earlier that I was recently exposed to a new class of social media influencers. This one was giving out advice on how to pick a gym out and was called a Social Media Fitness “Expert.” You can see by looking at the people walking into most grocery stores how the advice from this group is working out. For any of you interested in applying for this position, the qualifications are as follows:
- Six pack abs
- Bulging biceps or firm and large breasts (Depends on whether you are male or female)
- Toned and buff with a great tan
- Fantastic physique
So, what percentage of todays males have six pack abs and what percentage of women today have had breast enhancements? Metis gave me the following figure: “About 1% to 5% of American men have clearly defined six-pack abs.” If you want to know why this figure is so low, get your own AI program. I am going to be a Fitness “Expert.”
As for women in America who have had breast enlargements, that figure stands at 300,000 breast augmentations that are performed each year in the U.S. The average cost of these procedures is between 7,000 to $10,000 total.
Comparing men with six pack abdominal muscles to women with breast enlargements shows that a larger percentage of women undergo this treatment compared to men with six pack abs. About 3% to 6% of adult women in the United States have had breast implants at some point in their lives. It is clear why the percentage is higher than for men so enough said about abs and breasts.
The point here is that as with all of the “Experts” and analysts telling us what to do, what is going to happen and how to think there is an enormous difference between visibility and reality. I am not going to try to bust anyone’s bubble more than I already have but the situation is a little like me taking lessons from Usain Bolt on how to run faster. Usain is a great runner but there is no way that I ever had the physical equipment to run like he does. The same goes for my singing. I can take singing lessons all day long and I am not going to sound like Morgan Wallen. But here we are talking about physical changes and many of the “Experts” that I am decrying are giving policy advice. For instance, there has been a flood of “Experts” telling the police and FBI what they should be doing in the Nancy Guthrie case. Nut cases with theories abounding are calling up regularly with advice and “clues” that they think might lead the police to finding Nancy.
What happens when the daily and nightly news is full of so-called “Experts” telling us what is going to happen in Iran or any other place in the world? The result is chaos, confusion, uncertainty, and bewilderment. None of these results helps any of us sleep any better. One “Expert” tells us this and another “Expert” tells us that. Who do we believe when we have hundreds of “Experts” all telling us what to believe? Not only does truth die but so does belief. We no longer trust the reality that we navigate in. People without a sense of direction or without any certainties in life become easy prey for demi-gods and would be dictators. The reality that people live in today makes them an easy target for predators that want to get their vote or get their dollar for some cause. The bottom line is always how to get the money from your pocket to their pocket.
How Do We Protect Ourselves from Experts?
I can give you three prescriptions that might help you. Here goes:
- Do not trust any single “Expert” or any one medium for information. A friend of mine has the following system. He calls it the “Ladder System.” There are five rungs on the ladder. Each rung represents a means of dealing with anything that we are told or hear or even see.
Rung 1: Bottom Rung
If you see something or hear something new it goes on the lowest rung in the ladder. We do not accept its validity at this point.
Rung 2:
If you hear of some data or facts from a reliable source that corroborates the information on Rung 1, than you can move it up to Rung 2. At this point it has some validity for being believable but perhaps not factual or consistent.
Rung 3:
To get to Rung 3, you need at least three or more independent corroborations from sources that are not selling you anything or benefiting from your dismissing the information. At this point your data or evidence should be highly reliable and valid.
Rung 4:
You may place your information on Rung 4 when you are able to substantiate the data and facts supporting the validity of this information with your own subjective experiences. Theory and Experience are essential to establish the validity or truthfulness of any theory. I prefer to have some personal experiences as well as scientific research before I put anything on this rung.
Rung 5:
Something can reach the Fifth Rung, only when science and reliable research over a period of at least ten years has supported the validity of the truth or information you want to regard as truth. Corroboration + Research + Experience + Time = Validity of the Information
- Be suspicious of anyone who has something to gain by your accepting what they say is true.
You have heard the saying “If it is too good to be true, it probably isn’t.” This saying has not stopped millions of people from being suckered in by slick con artists. A potential con artist is anyone who can gain your trust through a variety of means:
- Appealing to your emotions
- Winning your trust through purported friendship
- Claiming (even if legitimately) to be an Expert. This is the position that doctors, lawyers, and other professionals often use. “Me expert. You poor stupid ignorant client or customer or patient.” Just because they have an advanced degree does not make them right. Many so called experts often pontificate well out of the realm of their expertise.
- Being referred to you by someone you trust. The problem here is that anyone can become a sucker. Look at all the people who lost millions of dollars to Bernie Maddoff. Your friend might have already drank the Kool-aide.
- Do not be so blinded by your own intelligence or ego that you cannot stop and get a second and even third opinion.
It is hard to believe that so many people will sign on the dotted line before checking with someone who might be more objective and more independent. Heed the saying that, “Pride goes before a fall.” “Experts” have fooled thousands of people because the people were too proud to get an independent or third party opinion. We are never so blind as when we think that something we want or need will bring us the desired or expected outcomes that may be predicted by the “Experts.”
Let me tell you a story that happened to me after I was taken to the hospital on my very first ambulance ride.
About five years or so ago, one night I developed a throbbing pain in my side. I tried going for a walk, drinking hot lemon tea but nothing worked. I went to change up hoping to get in bed and the pain would stop. Next thing I know I was in an ambulance and headed to the hospital about forty miles away in St. Croix Falls. I woke when they started to stick me with an IV needle. Apparently I had passed out, and Karen called 911 thinking that I had had a heart attack. By the way, it was my first time ever in an ambulance.
I was driven to the St. Croix Medical Center and went immediately into emergency care. I was put on a bed, and they started a series of procedures to see what was wrong with me. I had an EKG, an Xray and an Ultrasound. All of this took about three hours. By then the pain had gone away and they sent me home with a doctors referral for the next day.
I arrived back at the medical center and had a meeting with a doctor. She informed me that I had a gall bladder attack and that I would need to have my gall bladder removed. I surmised as much and before I came to the appointment I read up some on gall bladder problems. She said they would do the pre-medical check today and I could come back for the surgery the following day. I said “wait just a minute. How do you know that my gall gladder is bad? She replied, “Don’t be afraid, it is a simple procedure, and you don’t really need your gall bladder.”
I said “listen Doctor, I had two surgeries in the past five years. I had my prostate removed and another for an inguinal hernia. I am not afraid of surgery. I just want to be sure that it is needed.” I said, “what if it was just a gall stone and it passed?” She said “Well, you might have other stones and then you will have the same problem again or maybe worse.” I said “Well, can’t you tell from the Xray if there are any other stones just waiting to pass?” “No,” she replied. “Why not” said I. “Because your gall bladder was so inflamed that the Xray could not see anything.” “Well then, what if we wait about two or three weeks and take another Xray when the inflammation has gone down?” “No Medicare will not let us do that. You can either get the surgery or forget about it.” By now I was fed up with the discussion. “I will pay for the procedure” I said. “No, that is not an option.” “Okay, then I will pass on the surgery.” She turned and walked out of the room without even a goodbye or have a lovely day.
A year later, I had another acute pain in my right abdomen. This time I drove myself to the same St. Croix Health Center. Again, it was at night and again the same procedures, Xray, EKG, Ultrasound. However, this time, they thought it was my kidney. Since I was more cognizant at this event, I asked the doctor if when they did the Ultrasound for my kidney, they could also take in my gall bladder. He agreed. When all the testing was over, I went home with another appointment for the next day.
Back again at the St. Croix Health Center. Doctor comes in and informs me that I have stage 1 kidney disease. He wants to know if I drink any alcoholic beverages. I tell him only draft beers, 45 percent Knob Creek Bourbon, 42 Percent Ron Barceló Gran Anejo Rum and 40 percent Cabo Wabo Anejo Tequila. He politely informs me that I might live longer if I cut my alcohol consumption down. I agree. I than ask him if he noticed anything about my gall bladder on the x-rays and how it was doing. Surprise of my life. He said “Your gall bladder was fine. You have the gall bladder of a sixteen year old.”
I went home and checked out the price of a gall bladder removal. It was between thirty-five thousand and forty thousand dollars. I was wondering if there was any way Medicare or my insurance plan would reimburse me for the money I saved by passing up on the Gall Bladder surgery. Five years have since passed. I have not had any more kidney or gall bladder problems. I confess, I have cut my alcohol usage by about 75 percent.
The point of my story here is that the Expert, the doctor was all prepared to do “routine” gall bladder surgery without conclusive evidence that it was needed. If you read some of my earlier blogs, you will find the following statistics on unneeded surgeries. This data is from the Lown Institute hospital overuse analyses using Medicare claims:
- Coronary stents for stable heart disease
Lown reported 229,000 unnecessary coronary stents from 2019–2021, which is about 76,000 per year among Medicare patients. - Back surgery: spinal fusion / laminectomy for low-value indications
Lown reported more than 200,000 unnecessary back surgeries over three years, or roughly 67,000 per year. - Vertebroplasty for osteoporotic fracture
Lown reported over 100,000 unnecessary vertebroplasties over three years, or about 33,000 per year. - Hysterectomy for benign disease
In Lown’s March–December 2020 Medicare analysis, hospitals performed 14,455 low-value hysterectomies. That annualizes to roughly 17,000 per year. - Inferior vena cava (IVC) filter placement
In that same March–December 2020 analysis, hospitals performed 9,595 low-value IVC filter procedures, which annualizes to about 11,500 per year.
A few important cautions: these are expert overuse estimates, not exact counts of proven malpractice; they are largely based on Medicare hospital claims, so they do not capture every U.S. patient; and “unnecessary” here means the procedure met published overuse criteria, not that every individual case was inappropriate.
Conclusions:
I do not have much else to say. We rely too much on so-called experts. We need to base our decisions on facts. This means facts based on data and not opinions or even just theories. My mentor Dr. Deming used to say, “In God we trust, but everyone else must have data.” My father always said, “Believe nothing of what you hear and half of what you say.” Both of these admonitions have served me well and I think if they are the only thing that you remember from my blog, I will have done my job. Remember please. I am not selling you anything or charging you any money for my thoughts. You can take them or leave them; it is all the same to me. Here are some quotes on “Experts” by better men than I am.
“The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.”
— Bertrand Russell
“Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.”
— Lao Tzu
“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”
— Richard Feynman
“Experts are often wrong, but never in doubt.”
— Anonymous
Aging Capriciously 