Gun control is only a first step. Some of the Second Amendment advocates are right about one thing. There are some of us who want to take their guns away. Not all of their guns, but some of their guns. Licensing, background checks, restrictions on types of firearms, restrictions on clip size, none of these will stop the mass killings in America. There is a simple reason for this. There are too many guns in America available. Look at it this way.
Assume that there were 100,000 cars in a given area. Assume that for every 100,000 cars there would be an average of 100 accidents per year. This assumption can be verified by statistical analysis of car accidents in a given area. Some places will have more accidents than other places, but all places with cars will have some accidents.
There are many factors governing who will have an accident, when they will have an accident and where they will have an accident. No amount of statistical analysis can precisely predict when, where or who will be connected with an accident. We use licensing, registrations, vehicle checks, drivers tests and still we have a current death rate in 2020 of 12.9 deaths per 100,000 vehicles. This is a 58% improvement from the motor-vehicle death rate in 1937 with 30.8 deaths per 100,000 population. Cars have become safer with airbags, better brakes, seat belts and other safety devices. Yet we still cannot prevent an accident from happening. —Historical Fatality Trends
Now if we increase the number of cars from 100,000 to 1 million and assuming all other variables stay equal, than we can assume that there will be ten times more accidents or that we will go from 100 car accidents per year to 1000 car accidents per year. Or with a death rate of 12. 9 deaths per 100,000 vehicles, we will now have a total of 129 deaths per year. Applying this same logic to firearms explains why the number of mass murders and firearm fatalities is increasing. However, the statistics are more difficult. Part of this has to do with the congressional oversight protecting the gun industry in the USA.
Let us assume that for every 7500 guns in America that there will be 1-gun related fatality. This statistic is derived from the fact that in 2020, there was a total of 45,222 deaths related to firearms in America. The number of guns in America is estimated at about 340,000,000. (The wide variances in registered guns by state, the lack of information on unregistered guns, the extreme variability in guns per capita make a definitive statistic nearly impossible.) Dividing the total number of guns (a rough estimate) by the number of gun related deaths gives us 1 fatality for approximately every 7500 guns.
“A new report from the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions analyzes Centers for Disease Control and Prevention firearm fatality data for 2020—a year that saw the highest number of gun-related deaths ever recorded by the CDC and a sharp increase in gun homicides. Among other things, the report concludes that states with the most robust gun laws have lower gun-related death rates. The Center for Gun Violence Solutions is based at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.” —- John Hopkins School of Public Health
Applying the same car logic to guns in America, if we have 1 death per every 7500 firearms available then increasing the number of firearms will increase the number of deaths and injuries. However, we already know that increasing the number of firearms has increased the number of deaths and injuries. Three hundred and forty million firearms are now causing over 45,000 deaths per year. Double the number of firearms and we can have nearly 100,000 deaths per year. Of course, we could do the opposite of what we did with cars and make firearms even more lethal. (Something that many gun owners relish). Making guns more lethal would up the death toll. Bumper stocks was one example of this increasing lethality.
Conversely, if the logic holds, decreasing firearm lethality should decrease both deaths and serious injuries. But an even better strategy would be to decrease the number of guns in America. The logic here is that there is no way that we will be able to prevent the carnage that is happening daily with background checks, mental health clinics, psych screenings or any other suggestions that have been offered. As long as we have 340 million guns available to any individual that suddenly loses his or her sanity, there is going to continue to be daily incidents of mass gun violence. Given the right circumstances, we all can become potentially bad guys.
Increase the number of guns or the lethality of guns and you will increase the number of people who die from firearms.
Decrease the number of guns in America or decrease the lethality of guns and you will decrease the number of people who die from firearm deaths.
Its that simple folks. But the difficult part is developing the will to fight a battle against a mindset driven by fear to buy ever more guns and an industry bent on selling ever more guns.
More guns = more deaths. No amount of “GOOD GUYS” with a gun is going to change this fact.
Aging Capriciously 
Jul 06, 2022 @ 08:53:05
undisputable logic.
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Jul 06, 2022 @ 09:00:03
Thanks David.
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Jul 13, 2022 @ 15:31:53
Indeed, it is so simple, and yet … profit for the gun industry takes precedence over our very lives. And the willfully ignorant buy into the ‘good guy with a gun’ theory. Banning assault weapons would be the equivalent of putting seat belts in cars, or imposing a speed limit on highways. Why is it so difficult for people to see this? Excellent post … thank you, Dr. Persico!
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Jul 13, 2022 @ 17:00:06
Reblogged this on Filosofa's Word and commented:
As I was trying to catch up and clean out my email inbox today (over 600 emails is just too much!!!), I came across this post by Dr. John Persico. This is the simplest, most logical argument I have seen for stricter gun regulation and he puts to bed the myth of the “good guy with a gun”. Thank you, Dr. Persico, for this excellent assessment!
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Jul 13, 2022 @ 19:13:32
Thank you very much Jill for taking the time to comment. I am glad that you found my article useful. We are living in a crazy country where myth and lies now seem to substitute for truth and facts. Hope all is well with you and family. John
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Jul 14, 2022 @ 00:01:21
We are indeed living in a crazy country these days. I keep saying that nothing can surprise me anymore, but every day I am proven wrong. I keep thinking we’ve hit rock bottom, that we cannot possibly sink any lower, but then we do. Gun proliferation is one of my top 5 pet peeves and I have often said that if the framers of the Constitution had known then how badly the 2nd Amendment has been abused, they would never have put it in there! We are doing well — thanks John! And I hope all is well with you and yours, too. I look forward to your next post!
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Jul 14, 2022 @ 10:24:42
Thanks Jill, I think you and I must have a very similar mindset. Every day hits a now low and it does not seem like there is any bottom anymore. I doubt our Founders anticipated the craziness that guns have created in our country. Very sad. I have many posts some 900. Try typing in my search engine a subject or topic you are interested in and see if you get any hits. I will be posting next week after I get back from my annual retreat. John
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Jul 15, 2022 @ 01:12:16
Yes, I think you’re right that we are of a like mind. What we see happening today is sad, and it is … enraging. I will definitely check out more of your posts soon … thank you! And enjoy your annual retreat!
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Jul 18, 2022 @ 06:56:20
Thank You Jill, It was a wonderful retreat this year.
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Jul 13, 2022 @ 17:33:21
Reblogged this on NEW BLOG HERE >> https:/BOOKS.ESLARN-NET.DE.
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Jul 13, 2022 @ 19:16:34
Thank you for helping to spread the word. I think we can only change the gun craze in this nation by speaking out. I am encouraged because once smokers had more rights than non-smokers and we changed that around. I think we must do the same thing with “gun rights.” Those of us who want to be safe need to speak out as we know that guns are doing anything but making us safer. Few of us can walk down the street or go into a store anymore or drive anyplace without wondering if some “good” guy with a gun is not going to go berserk and shoot us or a loved one.
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Jul 14, 2022 @ 09:55:39
2 suggestions.
1. Utterly ban all gun production, not just in the States, but in the world. (I know right now that is The Impossible Dream, but I dream it anyway.)
2. Outlaw all multi-shot weapons. If people need guns that badly, make them use guns that have to be reloaded after every shot. Make shooters think about what they are doing each and every time they load a gun, or rifle. (Another Impossible Dream, but not as impossible as the first duggestion above!)
We would have to reclaim and destroy a great number of guns around the world, but if we want to keep having a world to live in as safely as possible we have to start doing something purposefully, and with organization. Haphazard projects around the world will never work as long as someone somewhere is manufacturing multi-shot weapons.
There are two facts (at least) that I would love to know: how many guns are manufactured every day, (by nation, by world), and what is the working lifetime of a gun? It seems to me guns can be kept in working order for over 100 years.
Think about it! How many guns will exist in this world in 2122? In 2222? I am just guessing, but there are possibly more guns being produced around the world in a day than the number of babies born on that same day. In 100 years, most of those babies will have died. Hardly any of the guns will have died. There are presently more guns in the USA than there are people. That number can only grow faster than the population of the USA can grow. Despite all the laws in all the nations of this globe, eventually if we carry on as we are going guns will double and triple the number of people in this world. Apply your gun death statistics to that!
I think the world cannot sustain these numbers. We must start changing the world now.
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Jul 14, 2022 @ 10:29:26
Your point leads to a question of “sustainability” which is very intriguing. I am with you on dreaming the “impossible” dream and we can only build a better world on dreams. Your dreams can be a foundation for that better world. I would not bore you with pragmatism since I too are fed up with “pragmatic” solutions. I think we should beat all weapons into plow sheds, destroy all nuclear arms and start “demilitarizing” the world. Imagine if we spent the money we spend on our military on health care and education. Thanks for your comments. John
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Jul 14, 2022 @ 17:55:40
Health care, education and social programs “uber alles” to try to reframe a Nazi propaganda motto. Even before space and science. People first, everything else second
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