The One-Third Rule of Revolutions: What We Must Do to Restore Democracy in America! —By John Persico with Metis

For years I’d heard a curious idea, that most revolutions are won by only a third of the population.  Supposedly the American Revolution broke down this way—one third for independence, one third against it, and one third sitting on the fence.  I began wondering whether this pattern was unique to America or common across world history.  And if it was true, even in spirit, how is it possible for a minority to defeat a larger group?

Let me get something very straight with this blog.  This is not about theory.  This is about praxis.  We are in the midst of a cold war rapidly becoming a hot war in the country.  One third of Americans want a democracy.  One third want a Hitler.  One third don’t give a damn.  I want to see the winning side be the side for democracy.  I am posting this blog so that we can all understand what it will take to win this war.

I am under no illusions that this war will be won overnight.  I have no illusions that the mid-term elections will make more than a ripple in this war.  I have no illusions that releasing the Epstein files will make any more difference than getting Trump’s tax reports make.  I have no illusions that Trump supporters will suddenly join the “good” guys.  I have no illusions that Congress, the Senate or the Supreme Court will help us to win this war.

The only illusion I am under is that we need a large mass of people who will stand up, speak out, march and refuse to settle quietly into a country dominated by autocrats, plutocrats and oligarchs.  As Patrick Henry so bravely stated “I know not course what others may take but give me liberty or give me death.”  If you want to live under a democracy, you must be willing to fight for it.  You must even be willing to die for it.  Nothing less than this will help to restore democracy to America.

As usual, my friend Metis helped me uncover a deeper truth: while the “one-third rule” is more myth than precise statistic, it captures something essential about how societies change.

Revolutions are not majority events.  They are minority movements that succeed when the conditions are right.  But we do not have to wait until the conditions are right.  In fact, one will only know when the conditions were right.  That is, it is something we can only know after the fact.  We must act on the assumptions that our efforts will create the right conditions and indeed that is the only possibility that exists.

Myth and Reality: Was the American Revolution Really One-Thirds?

Historians don’t agree on exact numbers.  Loyalists (Those who wanted to stay with King George III) probably made up 20–30% of the population; active Patriots only 40–45%.  The rest moved with the winds of power, fear, or convenience.  But the spirit of the one-third idea is accurate:

Revolutions rarely begin with majority support.  They are propelled by determined minorities, resisted by others, and observed passively by the rest.  Today we may be in the minority.  However, as this blog will show, it does not matter.  We can still win the war and restore democracy if we meet certain conditions which I will discuss.

This same dynamic repeats across Paris in 1789, Russia in 1917, Cuba in 1959,  Iran in 1979,  and even some modern uprisings today.  The numbers vary, but the structure remains: a committed minority clashes with a protective minority, while most people watch and wait.

If Numbers Don’t Decide Revolutions, What Does?

Here is where the history becomes fascinating.  Revolutions are not democratic moments.  They are power struggles, and the deciding factors are not how many people agree but how many crucial systems shift.  The enemies of democracy today have shifted several crucial systems in their favor.  This includes the Congress, Supreme Court and religious systems across the spectrum as well as across the country.

Metis helped me understand that six forces usually determine the outcome of a revolution.

  1. The Power of the Narrative
  • The side that wins is often the side that tells the most compelling story.
  • American Patriots framed independence as liberty versus tyranny.
  • The Bolsheviks promised “Peace, Land, Bread.”
  • Iranian revolutionaries cast the Shah as un-Islamic and corrupt.

When one group claims the moral high ground—and gets people to believe it—it gains legitimacy, the most valuable currency in any upheaval.  The political legitimacy concerning a moral high ground has shifted from the beginning of the USA up to present times.  When the Republican party was against slavery, they held the moral high road.  This legitimacy shifted to the Democratic party when they began to espouse fair treatment and wages for working class people.  The legitimacy has now shifted back to the Republican party as they have assumed the high ground against efforts to reduce income inequality and a decent wage for all people.  They have created this new legitimacy by their constant hammering on what they call “Trickle Down Economics” and the danger presented to the USA by anything that bears a faint resemblance to socialism or (GOD FORBID) Communism.  Trickle Down Economics much like the Prosperity Gospel promises untold wealth to people based on their religion or willingness to defer gratification to someone else. This someone else is either the Uber-Rich controlling the corporations or the Ministers selling the tickets to heaven.

  1. The Weakness of the Old Regime

Revolutions succeed when the ruling system is already coming apart because of:

  • Economic crisis
  • Political division
  • Corruption
  • Military overstretch

 The American colonists fought an empire spread thin.
The French monarchy was bankrupt.
The Russian Tsar faced famine, inflation, and a collapsing army.

A revolution doesn’t topple a strong system—only a wounded one.  The downfall of the Democratic party as the “Ruling Party” did not happen overnight.  Democrats maintained nearly unbroken control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate for roughly 60 years, from the early 1930s until the mid-1990s.  While the presidency alternated more frequently, legislative control and overall party identification favored the Democrats for most of the century.

As the Democratic party shifted from their traditional alliances with labor and working class people to supporting corporate driven efforts like NAFTA, their former allies shifted their allegiance.  The Republican Party starting promising to deliver on issues like

  • Removing gun control: The rights of individuals versus the “overreach of the Government. This went beyond gun control to encompass many other efforts to reduce Government power or regulations.
  • Repealing Roe Versus Wade: Family Values became a consistent Republican theme.  Beginning in the 1970s, the Democratic Party’s platform became more progressive on social issues, which alienated many religious and culturally conservative voters.
  • Elitism versus Popularism: As the Democratic Party became increasingly associated with college-educated professionals and urban “elites,” many working-class voters without degrees began to feel culturally alienated. Issues such as environmental regulations (which affected mining and logging jobs) and “identity politics” were often framed by Republicans as evidence that Democrats had lost touch with “average Americans”
  • Economic Disillusionment and Deindustrialization: For decades, the “New Deal Coalition” was held together by white working-class labor unions. However, the economic crises of the 1970s (stagflation) and the decline of American manufacturing (the “Rust Belt” phenomenon) led many to feel the Democratic Party’s policies were no longer working for them.
  • Scapegoating: One strategy that always works to win supporters is to blame someone else for our problems.  The Republicans became very adept at blaming criminals and crime for all of America’s drug problems and Immigrants for the lack of jobs and disintegration of our manufacturing industries.
  1. Military Defection: The Decisive Factor

This may be the single most important factor.  It is also the most difficult one to harness to any efforts at change.  Throughout history, if the army remained loyal to the old regime, revolutions died quickly.  But if even a portion of soldiers defected—or refused to suppress protesters—the balance shifted overnight.  We are seeing this factor play out right now as people like Senator Mark Kelly speak to soldiers about the rules of the UCMJ and as Congress and the courts attempt to bridle the power of the Presidency to use the US military for “Insurrectionist” causes.

  1. Organization Beats Majority

A united minority will defeat a divided majority.  Samuel Adams said that he didn’t need the people, only “An irate, tireless minority keen to set brushfires of freedom.”  He understood the mathematics of commitment: organized passion overwhelms scattered opposition.

This explains everything from Lenin’s disciplined Bolsheviks to Castro’s small, cohesive guerrilla force.  Passion and commitment can win out over elements like greed and fear.  If we can gain the moral clarity that we need to appeal to a large minority of people and couple that with a zeal and passion that reflects more than economic need or even religious fervor, we can surely topple the anti-democratic elements in our country.  This is not to say that many of these people are not also driven by passion and fervor for what they believe is right.  Unfortunately, the passion and fervor of the Republican positions is even more aligned with greed and fear.  There is a decided lack of empathy and compassion in Republican policies for the poor, minorities and underprivileged.

  1. Support from Outside Powers

The Patriots needed France.  Vietnam needed the Soviet Union and China.  Afghanistan’s Mujahideen needed the United States.  Revolutions are seldom isolated.  When outside powers tilt the scales, even a small domestic movement can triumph.

It has become increasingly apparent that the Anti-Democratic forces in America are alienating not only our enemies but also many of our former allies.  The recent moves by Trump to annex or acquire Greenland, together with his unilateral invasion of Venezuela has angered many of our NATO partners.  Add to this the Non-NATO countries that are horrified by Trump’s actions and you have a phalanx of countries that believe America’s foundation for world peace is unstable and unreliable.

It is not clear to me what impact the attitudes of other nations can have on our efforts to restore a Democratic country, but seldom in history has a Tyrant nation lasted when faced with a united opposition from the rest of the world.  Trump is digging a grave for America with each of his so called efforts to “Make America Great Again.”

  1. The Middle Third Doesn’t Stay Neutral Forever

Here is the most intriguing factor.  That passive third—the cautious, undecided, go-along-to-get-along crowd—will eventually move.  The forty million Americans who did not vote.  They will  tend to shift toward whichever side appears:

  • More legitimate
  • More competent
  • More likely to win
  • More capable of maintaining order

Revolutions are psychological events.  People want to be on the right side of history—or at least on the side that won’t punish them.

As Metis reminded me, “When the middle begins to believe one side is the future, the tipping point arrives.”

So Which Third Wins?

It isn’t the largest group.  It’s the group that hits the Five-Factor Threshold:

  1. A powerful, morally compelling story
  2. A weakened ruling order
  3. Some degree of military support
  4. Strong organization and cohesion
  5. External allies or neutrality from the outside world

Meet these conditions, and even 20% of the population can win a revolution.  Fail dramatically at any one, and even 70% support may not be enough.

History is not a democracy—it’s a contest of energy, legitimacy, and timing.

A Deeper Personal Reflection

I’ve shared with Metis that I look back nostalgically at times when integrity seemed to matter more, when people believed in duty and morality.  Our culture has grown cynical, sometimes preferring anti-heroes to actual heroes.

The lesson from the one-third rule is both sobering and hopeful:

A society can decline even when most people are decent—if the active minority pushes it downward.

But society can also be uplifted if a committed minority of citizens with integrity act with courage and clarity.

Small groups bend history.  Which means that every generation—including ours—must decide which minority will shape the future.

Either choose Democracy or choose a Dictatorship.  The choice is yours!

Why Democrats Lost — and What They Must Do Next

Robert Reich and I have at least one thing in common.  He hates bullies and so do I.  In his most recent book, “Coming Up Short”, he talks about how he had to deal with bullies because he was so short.  My dad was 6’4” tall and could often be a bully.  I had enough abuse from him growing up that I also came to hate bullies.  I had many fights when I was younger where I defended either myself or equally often other people physically against bullies.  Robert Reich points out that one major reason for Trump’s popularity is that he is a Bullie’s Bully.   Millions of Americans who have been bullied by an unjust system of economics, education, justice, health care and government see Trump as their protector or even savior.  Reich notes:

“A large portion of America has felt bullied and harassed for decades. They’ve worked their asses off but haven’t gotten anywhere. Employers have fired them without cause or notice, made them into contract workers without any security or rights, spied on them during working hours, and otherwise treated them like children.

They’ve been bullied by landlords who keep hiking their rent. By banks that keep adding large fees to whatever they owe. By health insurers and hospitals that charge them an arm and a leg. By corporate grocery monopolies that push up food prices.

Many of them voted for Trump because he promised he’d be their bully. He blamed others — immigrants, people of color, transgender people, foreign traders — for what they endured. He thereby found scapegoats for their deep feelings of powerlessness, vulnerability, and shame. It’s one of the oldest of demagogic tricks.

Democrats could have put the blame where it belonged — on monopolistic corporations and billionaires that abused their wealth and power by taking over our politics.

Democrats could have demanded higher taxes on big corporations and the wealthy to pay for childcare and eldercare. Tougher antitrust laws to break up monopolies. Labor law reforms that made it easier for workers to form unions and gain bargaining power. Universal health care. Strict regulation of big banks so they couldn’t shaft average people. And an end to big money in our politics.

But they have not — not loudly, not with one voice, not with the clarity the people need to hear.” — Robert Reich 8/24/25

The 2024 election is already being dissected in books and think-tank reports, but the clearest story is this: Democrats misread the electorate as well as deserted the electorate.  Caught up in arguments over gender identify, abortion rights and WOKE manifestos, the Democrats preached to a crowd with more important concerns on their minds.  Jefferson said that Democracy was a rule of the majority with a concern for the minority.  Democrats have reversed his message.  They now practice a rule for the minority with little or no concern for the majority. 

They believed that campaigning on democracy and abortion rights would be enough to hold the White House.  Those are vital issues, but voters were telling pollsters something else — they were worried most about the price of groceries, rent, and gas.  In swing districts, immigration and border control loomed even larger.  By downplaying those concerns, Democrats left the playing field wide open for Republicans.

Validated voter studies show that turnout favored 2020 Trump voters.  Younger and non-white men — groups Democrats once counted on — swung toward Republicans in significant numbers.  Many of these voters wanted practical answers on wages, security, and fairness.  They didn’t get them.

So, what must Democrats do if they hope to regain the House, Senate, or Presidency?  Three steps stand out.  

First, make the economy the front page of their campaigns, with plain talk about jobs, housing, and cost of living.  Find people who can speak the language of the average American and not in a voice only understood by Ph.D. graduates.  I am often bewildered by the terminology that some of the Democrats throw out.  Yesterday, I learned that the new vocabulary for “homeless” people is now “unhoused” people.  Do the Democrats really think this is going to make a difference to the people living in cardboard boxes throughout America? 

When I look at the new head of the Democratic National Committee (Ken Martin), I see a man who exemplifies everything that is wrong with the Democrats.  If his bio on Wikipedia is to be believed, Ken never did a day’s physical labor in his life (At least not in any paid position.) What makes this an even more grievous fact, is that he was given this position after Harris’s loss to Trump.  I doubt a guy with his background has any clue about the problems of the working class in America.  By the way, I am sure Ken is a nice guy, a good husband and a good father.  But that is not going to get Democrats elected.

Second, develop a credible immigration strategy that pairs border security with fair reforms.  Like it or not, immigration has been a major issue for Americans because as Reich noted, both parties have demonized immigrants as vulgar, uncouth, criminals who only want to take jobs away from legal Americans.  This is not an unusual state of affairs.  Even Benjamin Franklin had his biases when it came to immigrants.  Many of these changed over time as Ben observed the habits and ethics of other immigrant groups to the colonies. 

I have said we need a “fair immigration policy” and not an “anti-immigration policy.”  A number of years ago (at least seven) I wrote a series of blogs on the subject of immigration as I could witness it down here in Arizona.  You might say that we are on the front lines of immigration and have a long history of immigration.  The land I now live on was once part of Mexico until the Gadsden Purchase in 1853.  Some of my neighbors have history going back to Mexico over two hundred years.  See my blogs:

Third, speak in everyday language.  Too often Democrats rely on insider jargon that alienates working families.  Like it or not, most Democrats have become associated with the idea of PC or political correctness.  I am no enemy of using terminology that minorities and others find more respectful and less insulting.  However, some of the PC efforts have become ludicrous and only help to make the Democrats laughing stocks and open to scorn from the very people they need to help support them.  Here are a few examples:

  1. The use of “people experiencing food insecurity”

In May 2025, a debate over language use within the Democratic party was highlighted by the Washington Post.  One specific example given was referring to individuals as “people experiencing food insecurity” instead of the more direct phrase “people going hungry” or maybe even people “starving to death”!

  1. The replacement of gendered terms like “spokesman”

The movement towards gender-neutral language has led to the replacement of many words to avoid implying a specific gender, regardless of the individual’s identity.  For instance, the term “spokesperson” is often used instead of “spokesman” or “spokeswoman.”  I have a problem remembering which words to use.  Should I say fireman or fireperson?  Should I say postman or postperson?  Should I say fisherman or fisherperson?  Of course I do not want to offend anybody, so the only answer is to say nothing?  Or should I check with each fisherperson first to see what they prefer?  How do you say fisherperson in Spanish?

  1. “Person of color” (POC) instead of “minority”

Some find the term “POC” to be an overly broad and imprecise label that lumps together many distinct racial and ethnic groups, despite its progressive origins.  I am concerned about this label since I have always thought that being a White person I had some color.  I realize that many people see White people as more pink hued than white, but pink is still a color even if I do not like the idea of being a Pink person. 

In Conclusion:

Democrats do not need to abandon values of equality and freedom.  They need to marry those values to tangible solutions that the average people can feel in their daily lives.  They need to drop some of the bullshit that makes everyone think of them as WIMPS.  They need to fight and not keep talking about “hands” across the aisle.  When someone punches me in the face, I do not hand them a rose.  If Democrats want a path back to governing majorities they are going to have to:

  • Walk like the majority
  • Talk like the majority
  • Act like the majority

As long as Democrats insist on being isolated people who live in expensive mansions and go to exclusive Ivy League colleges,  they will not have a chance to get back into power.  Don’t tell me about their good intentions.  As the saying goes “The road to hell is paved with good intentions.” — Saint Bernard of Clairvaux (1090–1153)

 

What is Wrong with the Democratic Party Is Even Worse Now Than It Was Seven Years Ago!

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I wrote this blog seven years ago on Jan 21, 2018.  Not much has really changed with the Democrats except that Trump was re-elected.  I was an independent then and I remain an independent now.  My biggest attitude change is that I see MOST Democrats as clueless and an impediment to the changes many of us want in America.  I am not talking about the devasting and disastrous policies of our present so-called leader.  I am talking about a set of policies that will build on the true American Dream for a Democratic nation founded on a separation of church and state and equally concerned for the minorities in the country as well as the majorities.  A country where no one will tolerate constant wars with other countries much less a war between the haves and the have nots in our own nation.

Recently such people as Robert Reich, James Hightower, Bernie Sanders and many others even in the Democratic Party have echoed the sentiments which I noted seven years ago.  I called it a party of cowards with no vision for the future and totally beholden to corporate money.  I am not talking about the Republican party.  My only defense for voting for Hillary, Biden and Harris is that I saw them as the “lesser” of two evils.  It is a sorry state of affairs when millions of Americans either see no reason to vote or must choose between the lesser of two evils.

I have made very few changes in my original blog.  Where noted my changes will be in {  } and in bold lettering.  Lets start off then seven years ago:

January 21, 2018

It’s been a year now since the bad dream or worst nightmare in the history of this country burst upon us.  For many of us, we still cannot believe it happened.  Never in America has a man with so little character and absolutely no qualifications to be president been elected to this office.  In my lifetime, I have seen several presidents whom I did not think were good presidents.  Nixon and Ford come to mind.  I thought Clinton should have been impeached over the Lewinsky thing.  I thought Reagan’s Star Wars Initiative was the height of stupidity.  Neither of the wars started by either Bush did one thing to make America or the world safer.  But the new president takes stupidity, arrogance and downright evil to new heights.  Every day, Americans wake up to a Trump tweet declaring our hatred and belligerence to the rest of the world.  If there was ever a great depression, it is the feelings that many Americans now share about the fate of their country.  {This last statement may be the truest thing I have ever said}

I wanted to start a blog this week without going into another political diatribe or rant as some would call them.  I know we all get tired of the unremitting bad news from the papers, radios, TV, Internet and incessant analysts that surround us like flies on poop.  Bad news sells and in our 24/7 daily schedule of unceasing commercial bombardment, we now must hear bad news from any part of the world and not just our own local geography.   If a mother murders her babies in Angola, we will see it on the front page of our local news.  If a young woman is raped in France, we will be treated to a torrent of trending stories until they get tired of the story or catch the perpetrator.  News is now not only 24/7, it is global as well.

Shortly after Trump was elected, the analysts started to figure out why Hillary lost.  {Now they are trying to figure out why Harris lost}  I think I counted over 20 different rationales for Hillary losing.  Everyone had their theory.  The idea of multiple causality seems to have eluded many as each pundit hawked their own explanation.  I won’t bore you by subjecting you to the list.  In a complex answer, each of these theories would be weighted and we would find that some carried more weight then others.  Among the weightier was the issue of racism.  Nevertheless, no single cause contributed entirely to Hillary’s defeat.

One issue is still important today.  There is no longer any reason to worry about Hillary’s email server or about her seeming lack of warmth.  These problems are water under the bridge.  The problem though that is still substantial and that must be addressed concerns the problems within the Democratic Party itself.  {Even more true today than seven years ago.}  If the Democrats want to regain their former influence with Americans, they must do more than fight Trumpism.  They must also stand for something.  The Democrats may be looking better today {This is a real big maybe.}  but that is only because the Republicans and Trump look so bad.  The Democrats were once seen as the party of the working class and the champions of the underprivileged.  They clearly lost this mantle in the years leading up to the Trump debacle.  The Democrat Party has three big challenges:

  1. Moral cowardice
  2. New ideas and creativity
  3. Championing all classes as well as the working class

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Moral Cowardice:

John F. Kennedy wrote a book called Profiles in Courage.   It was about senators who defied the opinions of their party and constituents to do what they felt was right and suffered severe criticism and losses in popularity.  One of the famous stories in Profiles in Courage concerned Senator Sam Houston.  He was pulled from a train by an angry mob of constituents and threatened to be hanged because of his vote.  He steadfastly faced the mob and explained why he voted the way he did and why he would do so again.  Stories like this are rare and while that makes them inspirational, it also makes them sad.

We have a US Senate with 100 members and a US House with over 400 members.  On any given day, most of these men and women are more concerned with their poll numbers than what is good for the America people.  Partisanship has become the norm in Congress with both sides mutely aping their leadership’s call to “back their party.”

I remember well the drum beat to the first Iraq War called Desert Storm in 1990.  A year before the invasion, I could hear the calls going out for an Iraqi Invasion.  I looked for some logic for this war but could not find it.  I waited for my political leaders to counter Bush’s need for an invasion.  Almost everyone in Congress sat mutely by while Bush and his cohorts planned the invasion.  Gradually, they found more and more reasons to invade Iraq.  Gradually, the religious leaders jumped on board to support the administration.  Billy Graham declared it a justified war and held hands with George H. W. Bush while he pretended to agonize over his already foregone decision.  And still I waited and wondered why so few Democratic leaders challenged this war.  Where were the Democrats?

The Second Gulf War was not a repeat of the First Gulf War.  It was an even worse unmitigated disaster.  Trillions of dollars spent, and nothing accomplished except to make some private war contractors rich.  Where were the Democrats?  They seemed to be out looking with the Republicans for the so-called Weapons of Mass Destruction that Saddam had supposedly stockpiled.

I had a button many years ago that said on one side “Democrats: The Party of Wimps” and on the other side “Republicans: The Party of Greed.”  I do not know who printed this button but thirty years ago, the writing on the wall was clear.  The Democratic Doves feared the Republican Hawks.  Better to be labeled a Hawk than a Dove.  The term liberal was once a term of pride but under the Democrats it became associated with wasteful spending and half-baked solutions to social problems.  Bleeding heart liberal has now become a term despised by all.

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New Ideas and Creativity:

I live in two counties.  Both are predominantly Red Republican strongholds today.  However, my county in Wisconsin was once a Democratic stronghold.  Wisconsin was once a great bastion of Democratic ideas.  It was a state that was proud to have produced such champions of the underdog as Fighting Bob La Follette, William Proxmire and Senator Gaylord Nelson.  If anyone had ever told me that Wisconsin would have gone Red, I would have said they were crazy.

Now many of my “old” friends and many of my acquaintances in Wisconsin (A state I have lived in on and off for nearly twenty years now) are old line Democrats.  I confess I would rather have Democrats for friends than Republicans these days.  We share many of the same values even though I have never and will never be a card-carrying member of the Democratic Party or any other party.  I take pride in voting as an independent and not someone mindlessly following some party.

I have been each year for the past seven years to the local county Democratic Fundraisers.  Each year, I have listened to Democratic speakers who are jostling for political positions with hopes of defeating the Republican incumbents.  In some cases, more recently they have succeeded.   I can only hope this trend will continue but I am dubious.  My skepticism comes from looking at the people I see running.  Generally, they are well intentioned.  Some might even have the moral courage I want to see in leadership.  However, too many of the candidates that I have seen are either stuck in ideas from the past or lack new ideas that would bring some creativity and innovation to the Democratic Party.

Our political system not only needs new people, we need new ideas.  The same old ideas that worked in the past will not work in the future.  We need forward looking people that can challenge the existing system by promoting innovative ideas that do more than just support the status quo.  Our education system, our health care system, our prison system, our military system, our legal system, our infrastructure system and even our electoral system are all in need of more than reform.  They all need a complete restructuring.  These were systems designed for the 19th and 20th Century.  We need systems for the 21st and 22nd Century.  It is folly to think that simple reforms or piece meal patches to these systems will fix the blight and decay endemic in them.

I see too few of the emerging Democratic leaders as having a vision beyond fighting Trumpism.  That is clearly a start, but we need more than just reaction to Trump we need pro-action in our politics.  We need positive ideas.  We need new ideas.  Good intentions are not enough.

{On Tuesday of this week (August 11,2025) I had a meeting with one of the local officials of the Pinal County Democratic Party.  I wanted to show her how AI could be used in the upcoming mid-term elections to help sharpen focus and elect more progressive candidates.  I was still hoping that since she was a newbie to the leadership, she might be open to some new ideas.  Less than five minute into my synopsis of how AI (See the end of this blog for AI political information) could be used; she stopped me and said “Sorry, but I think AI is unethical.”  I jumped back in and admitted that it did use huge amounts of energy but I retorted “True, it absorbs a great deal of electricity but if we do not elect some forward thinking candidates we won’t have any energy to worry about.”}  

{“The Republicans with their denial of climate change and Trump with his dismantling of the EPA and clean energy will have destroyed the world as we know it.”  She was unfazed and replied that “She had her ethics and that was all there was to it.”  End of story.  I parted company with her and realized that it was futile talking to her.  I give you this brief story which is 100 percent true as just one illustration of what is wrong with the Democratic Party.  A party that seems stuck in the past and wondering why they are losing races and no one wants to be associated with them.}

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Championing All Classes as well as the Working Class:

Once upon a time, the Democratic Party was known as the champions of the working class.  They stood up for unions, higher wages, income parity and equal opportunity.  The working class was once the class of high school graduates.  Today, more than one-third of the adult population in the United States has a bachelor’s degree or higher.  The average earnings in 2016 for those ages 25 and older whose highest educational attainment was high school were $35,615.  The average earnings for those with a bachelor’s degree were $65,482 compared with $92,525 for those with an advanced degree (Census.Gov).  The composition of the American workforce has undergone a long evolution from the agricultural era though the industrial revolution to the new information era.  Definition of working class has continued to change as social structure has changed in the age of computers and the Internet.

As educational levels continued to increase, aspirations by Americans continued to increase.  Whereas once perhaps most Americans saw belonging to a union and retiring with a pension after 30 plus years to be the epitome of working life, that vision became obsolete.  The typical worker today sees themselves as a college educated salaried worker whose interests are more aligned with their company then with any union.

My father worked for the Post Office for over 30 years before retiring.  He never thought it was a fun job or an interesting job.  For my father, it was a job that paid the bills, had good benefits and would enable him to retire with a good pension.  My father’s aspirations and attitudes towards work were like most of his generation.  The idea of being passionate about your work would have been a joke to my father and his peers.  Times have changed dramatically.  Workers today want to believe in their work and their companies.  Workers want their jobs to be challenging, rewarding and fun.  The old days of waiting to enjoy life until you retire are dead.

The workers in America are different than they were twenty or thirty years ago.  The Democrats forfeited their allegiance to the American worker and allowed the Republicans to become the champions of the American worker.  From coal miners to computer programmers, from trailer parks to gated communities across America, once proud Democrats have become Republicans.  The sad part of the story is that the Democrats did not seem to raise a finger to stop the migration.  They did little or nothing to prevent it from happening.  They allowed the Republicans to become the standard bearer of wealth and prosperity.

Unfortunately, few workers realized that their Republican champions were more about privileges for the elite than sharing the wealth.  Or that gains for the upper class would come at the expense of other classes in this country.  The concept of Trickle Down is alive and well in the Republican Party.

Conclusions: 

Democrats need to build a new party.  Trumpism is a short-term aberration.  {I don’t believe that this is true anymore.  Trump might be short-term, but Trumpism should be a synonym for the Republican Party.}  Euphoria might be high right now for Democrats who see Trump as the best thing to ever happen for Democratic candidates.  With one of the lowest popularity ratings of any president in history, Trump will help insure a wave of Democratic Party victories.  However, it can be nothing but short-sighted folly to mistake the present disgust for Trump with a disgust for Republican principles in general.  The Republican Party became strong because they offered the American people a vision of society which promised a better life for millions of them.  Unless Democrats can come up with a compelling vision of society that addresses a wide spectrum of workers, the Republicans will regain power once their debacle with Trump is over.  {Actually they regained power despite ther 2020 debacle with Biden.  One could easily lay the blame for this on Biden and the Democratic Power Structure.}

“However [political parties] may now and then answer popular ends, they are likely in the course of time and things, to become potent engines, by which cunning, ambitious, and unprincipled men will be enabled to subvert the power of the people and to usurp for themselves the reins of government, destroying afterwards the very engines which have lifted them to unjust dominion.”  — GEORGE WASHINGTON, Farewell Address, September 19, 1796

“If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.” — DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER, speech, March 6, 1956

AI for Democracy: Smart Tools to Strengthen Progressive Wins in Pinal County

Goal

Leverage Artificial Intelligence to:

  • Counter authoritarian messaging
  • Engage and mobilize voters
  • Support fact-based, progressive policies
  1. Data-Driven Voter Outreach
  • Predictive Targeting – Use AI models to identify persuadable voters and low-turnout supporters for focused engagement.
  • Issue Mapping – Match voters with the issues they care about most (e.g., healthcare, climate, reproductive rights).
  • Turnout Propensity Scores – Prioritize outreach to those most likely to vote if contacted.
  1. Rapid Response to Misinformation
  • Real-Time Monitoring – AI scans local social media and forums for emerging false narratives.
  • Fast Rebuttal Drafting – Automated content library to push out fact-checks in plain language.
  • Local Storytelling – Quickly create sharable, people-first content showing the impact of progressive policies.
  1. Volunteer Empowerment
  • AI Chatbots – Handle volunteer signups, FAQs, and event reminders.
  • Route Optimization – Maximize canvassing efficiency with AI-generated walking/driving maps.
  • Virtual Training – Simulated voter interactions for canvassers to practice persuasive conversations.
  1. Personalized Communications
  • Smart Messaging – AI crafts personalized emails/texts based on voter interests.
  • Multilingual Outreach – Translate campaign materials into Spanish and other key languages (with human review).
  • Micro-Videos – Short, tailored clips for TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook audiences.
  1. Building Trust in Democracy
  • AI Listening Tools – Analyze community discussions to guide messaging and policy focus.
  • Civic Media Creation – Produce short podcasts, radio spots, and graphics with clear, local facts.
  • Moderated Virtual Town Halls – Keep online conversations civil, focused, and inclusive.

Ethics & Safeguards

  • Transparency about AI use
  • Protect voter data privacy
  • Avoid deepfakes or manipulative falsehoods
  • Focus on truth, empathy, and community building

Bottom Line:
AI is not about replacing human judgment — it’s about amplifying our ability to connect with voters, protect truth, and build a stronger, more inclusive democracy in Pinal County.

What America May Be Like in the Year 2056

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The following is an imaginary story I wrote back in January of 2017.  I wrote it at the start of the first trump administration.  I was reflecting on what life would be like in about 40 years under a Republican dominated government.  I just happened to come upon this blog again a few days ago.  After rereading it, I was surprised by how many of these things seem to be coming to pass under the “NEW” trump administration.  I have decided to publish it in the original without making ANY changes at all.  Love to hear your comments and what you think.  

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I live in Republicanville USA.  It is a small town of about 1,500 people in the rural Midwest.  Today in my town, all the women are barefoot and pregnant and all the men are stupid and misinformed.  It wasn’t always this way.  Things started to change about 75 years ago, when Ronald Reagan became President.  My town had always been very progressive and liberal but we started hearing more and more about how we were being taken advantage of by the poor, those on government handouts and those too lazy to work.  The Republicans who in our town had always been a minority began to grow in numbers.  The more we heard about welfare cheats and welfare freeloaders and those on drugs taking advantage of us, the more my town embraced a new concept of democracy.  It was more like “every man or woman for themselves” rather than “all for one and one for all.”

obey-jesus-or-perish

Our U.S. democracy which had always prided itself on a separation of church and state seemed to forget the reason for this partition.  Increasingly, a group called Evangelical Fundamentalists became more popular along with their criticism of many progressive institutions.  Republicanville USA moved more and more to the right.  The concept of unbridled capitalism became enshrined as a religion and many people began opposing “big” government and taxes.  The Republican Party preached that the marketplace could provide for all social, physical and economic needs of U.S. citizens.  My town moved even further to the right.

trump-state-of-the-unionThis conservative trend was already well underway when in 2017, a billionaire real-estate developer named Donald Trump became the 45th President of the United States of America.  In addition to the hard core conservative beliefs of many mainstream Republicans, Trump added the once discredited idea of American Isolationism.  We would now put America first, no matter what.  No more negotiations with other nations unless it was clear that we got the better of the deal.  We would build a big wall to keep Mexicans and other immigrants out and we would renege on our trade deals with China and Europe.  About the only country that Trump liked was Russia.   Eventually, he agreed to give Alaska and parts of Canada back to Russia.

Trump came through on his promises to the Evangelicals that he would make America White again and put women back in the bedroom where it would be okay to grab their pussies whenever you wanted to.  Minorities were targeted for deportation and women libbers promoting abortion or equal rights for women were arrested in wholesale sweeps and sent to special detention centers for chronic complainers and protesters.

I would like to describe in somewhat more detail what my town is like now in 2056.  Things are a lot different than when I was born in 2017.  I will divide my discussion of these changes into three areas:  Family, Education and Social Issues.

Family:

another-day-in-paradiseI am 39 years old and have two children.  I have never worked (at least outside of the home) as women have not been allowed to work since 2022 when they passed the “Women in the Home Law” as it was popularly called.  The Federal government passed the law and it was ratified by every state and municipality in the nation.  Some places tried to hold out but the government cut off all funding to them until they capitulated.  This law effectively outlawed women working.  It also barred women from the military.  Ten years later (2032) they passed the “Mandatory Birth Act.”  This bill proscribes that every woman (physically able to) must give birth to at least two children.  Any woman who reaches the age of 32 and still has not given birth to two children is forcibly removed to a National Birthing Center where she will be artificially impregnated and kept confined until she has had at least two healthy children.  Sickly or unhealthy children are sent to Disposal Camps where they are “recycled” per official government propaganda.  No one is quite sure what happens during recycling but the children are never seen again.

Many gay women resisted the Mandatory Birth Act and the National Suicide Rate went up dramatically.  The “Fathers” (as our political leaders are now called) made it very clear that the country would be better off without such deviates.  Since women were no longer allowed in politics, the leaders of the nation decreed that they would all be called “Fathers” instead of being referred to as politicians or legislators as they once were called.

My husband works at a local mill where they make t-shirts for Japan, China, Brazil and some of the more developed t-shirt-workersnations.  Since banning imports of such items, we have created millions of jobs making goods that were once made in low wage countries.  The demand for such goods has skyrocketed but now we are providing them.  Unfortunately, the wages and education needed for such work is still low.  My husband did not finish high school but most men in our town do not.  The Fathers have repeatedly stated that real men don’t need higher education.  (I will talk more about education later.)

When my husband is not working, he spends most of his time watching football, baseball, basketball, golf or hockey.  I ammen-watching-game not allowed in the living room when his sports are on except to bring in some beer or chips.  This does not really bother me much as I have plenty to do with the kids, housecleaning, cooking and all.  I have my own TV in my sewing room where I can watch any of the approved programs for women.  We have 30 different “Women Only” channels where I can learn more about cooking and cleaning and how to be a good wife. There are some good romances and family drama stories that are occasionally on.  I look forward to watching these when the kids are in bed.

Our two children, Mary and John are 12 and 15 respectively.  Mary is in a finishing school for girls where they are preparing her for being a mom and wife.  She takes subjects such as homemaking, cooking, cleaning and parenting.  She has one more year to go before finishing school.

When Mary turns 14, she will be eligible for marriage.  Her name will be put in a marriage registry.  If she is lucky enough and pretty enough, some up and coming town Father will select her for a wife.  Men who qualify due to income levels are allowed to have up to five wives.

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My son John is not in school any longer and he works part-time.  The Fathers decried that girls did not need schooling after the age of 13.  John hopes to get a job in the t-shirt plant where his dad works when he turns 16.  He quit school because we could not afford a private school for him.  Only the rich kids in town go on to education beyond the 10th grade.  Private schools are very expensive and the Fathers do not believe in funding education any more.  It has been emphasized that education is an elitist program that creates class divisions and makes some people feel more entitled than other people.   Most young men in our town will work in one of the mills or plants.

Education:

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I have already talked about some aspects of our education system today.  Basically, most people do not believe in higher education anymore.  It is only for the rich.  All funds for public education were cut in 2035 when they passed the “Private Education Act”.  Most folks now send their kids to private schools through the 8th grade and then find work for their children after that.  Girls will be shortly married so school is not thought to be that important for them anyway.  They can learn whatever they need to be a good wife on the “At Home Wives Channels.”

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Boys from families with lower incomes can opt to go to privately funded vocational schools to learn such trades as t-shirt making, sneaker making, jewelry making, gun repair, taxidermy, and many other skills that might be in demand.  There is still some funding for such programs that is available for lower income families.  All public colleges have been closed now.  As I noted earlier, such schools were decried to be elitist and the Fathers were unanimous in un-funding them.

Boys from wealthier families go to the more prestigious private schools where they will learn such skills as: Leadership, Accounting, Business Development, Entrepreneurship and Medicine.  Law was abolished as a field of study in 2030 with the passage of the “No More Lawyers Act.”  This act basically made lawsuits illegal thus dramatically decreasing the need for lawyers in the U.S.

Courtrooms abolished “adversarial” trial procedures with the “No More Lawyers Act” and replaced the old-fashioned method of two people arguing trials with modern Computerized Forensic Tomography.  Using CFT, a cross section of the case and evidence pro and con is presented to the jurors.  All the available facts and data are reviewed and jurors vote on the verdict.  Trials are much more efficient and there is no need for lawyers.

Anti EducationLibraries are now mostly museums.  With the passage of the “Books Only Lie Bill” in 2038, all funds to public libraries were cut.  The Fathers decried that books did nothing but cause trouble and stir up discontent.  Anything citizens really needed to know could be found on the “Citizens Channels” offered by the government Department of Public Wisdom.  There are over 100 of these channels which are available on public TV.  They are on 24/7 and offer many programs for good citizenship.  Some of the programs are:

  • Disciplining your children
  • How to take proper care of your guns
  • Disciplining your wife
  • Obeying your supervisor
  • Getting along with co-workers
  • Obeying authority
  • Keeping a clean house

Social Issues:

Social issues or problems (as some people thought of them) have been mostly eliminated in our town.  Our Fathers banned minorities in 2040 with the “America for Whites Act.”  Under this act, no immigrants or people of color can live in the same community as White people.  In 2041, they passed the “Christian Only Act” making Christianity the official Religion of the USA.  All other religions were banned along with atheism and agnosticism.  The “Mandatory Religion Act” in 2042 made it a felony crime not to attend a Christian church every Sunday.

In our town, there is only one church now.  It the Fundamental Evangelical Christian Church for Christ.  We have two pastors who are both well versed in Old Testament theology.  They are fond of saying that “Heaven is for the obedient, the disobedient will all go to hell.”  We are taught that Jesus will come again before the end of the century to judge the living and the dead.  The good folks will go to heaven and the bad will burn forever in the flames of hell.

We still have crime in our community but not very much.  It is severely punished with public floggings, beatings and hangings.  Criminals are banished to work rehabilitation camps for hard labor.  Drugs are still a major problem but the new “One Strike Act” passed in 2050 decried that anyone caught with an illegal substance would face a mandatory life sentence at a penal colony somewhere in the South China Sea.

immigration-reform

Gay men still can be found but homosexuality can be punished under the “2045 Purity of Purpose Bill” with mandatory castration.  Boys are encouraged to be manly and any evidence of femininity in our boys is severely dealt with.  Our town brought back “town stocks” a few years ago, to punish any boys or men caught in homosexual activities.  These punishments plus the threat of castration have decreased the rate of homosexuality considerably in our community.

Well, I could tell you a great deal more about life in our town in 2056, but I have cleaning and cooking to do.  Furthermore, if anyone knew I was writing this I would be in big trouble.  Under the “Against Propaganda Law” passed in 2041, no one may criticize the government, any Fathers or any laws without official authorization from the local town council.  I could be publicly flogged or worse for saying these things.  Thus, for now I will just hide this away.  I don’t mean to be either a coward or a complainer.  Our Fathers say this is the Golden Age of America and that we are living in the greatest Christian country in the world.  Who am I to argue?

Time for Questions:

Are you living the good life?  Do you live the life you dreamed of?  Do you think you have a right to your dreams?  Do you think other people also have a right to their dreams?  How much authority do you think a government should have over your dreams?  What kind of dreams do you have for your children?  What do you call progress?

Life is just beginning.

“No one believes more firmly than Comrade Napoleon that all animals are equal.  He would be only too happy to let you make your decisions for yourselves.  But sometimes you might make the wrong decisions, comrades, and then where should we be?”  ― George OrwellAnimal Farm

No Supplication to the Democratic Party

A supplicant is a person who asks for something from someone in a humble or respectful way. For example, a supplicant might pray to God for help or ask a powerful person for a favor.  A supplicant goes to the Godfather on bent knee, kissing his ring and tearfully requesting some action or effort to address a problem.

There are many of us over the years who have gone on bent knees to the Democratic Party and pleaded with them to help us out.  They have been oblivious to our supplications.  Our requests have been ignored.  They have turned a deaf ear to our entreaties.  Now they are complaining that they are getting too many requests from voters to have a spine.

“Meanwhile, Democratic congressional leaders held an internal “gripe-fest” last week. Not griping about Trump’s authoritarian assault – but about their own grassroots constituents inundating them with calls and emails demanding that they grow spines and start fighting the rising oligarchy.” — Jim Hightower, “The Lowdown”

I confess.  Mea Culpa.  I have voted for Obama, Hillary, Biden and Harris.  I too have thought the Democrats were the answer to the right-wing madness taking over the country.  I might as well have exhorted a lamb to go fight it out with a wolf or cougar.  The stalwarts of the Democratic Party have grown up placating so many people, they no more have the ability to tackle trump, than I have of wresting with a grizzly bear.

I listened to NPR today when they were interviewing some big shot from the Democratic Party about the trump speech.  They asked him what he thought of the speech.  He replied, “I think there were a lot of “Mischaracterizations” in his talk.”  WTF is a “mischaracterization?”  Did he mean that every other fucking sentence trump speaks is a lie?  The lamb thinks it is standing up to the wolf when it runs in the other direction.  Steven Colbert held up a sign on his nightly broadcast urging Democrats to “Do Something.”  The Democrats really showed trump during his excretory diatribe that they would thwart him by doing nothing and saying nothing.  Funny how this would work?  Very few people in history have accomplished anything by doing and saying nothing except holding up a few unreadable signs.

Let me get to the point.  Forget pleading with the Democratic Party to get a spine.  You are wasting your breath.  There are only three positions to take with the Democratic Party.  They are as follows:

  1. Some of the Democratic Party members might be helpful but most are too much a part of the system to ever risk a major change.
  2. The more time you spend supplicating the Democratic Party leadership to stand up and be counted, the more effort you waste that is fruitless. Forget helping the Democratic Party to find a “new direction.”  They could not find a new direction if they had a Genie in a lamp to guide them.
  3. We need to build a mass movement with our own leadership first and foremost. Any assistance from the Democratic Party would be “icing on the cake.”  The change is going to come from the people like you and me who owe nothing to the Democratic Party.

We need to start communications between all the anti-trump movements in the entire country.  We need boots on the ground and willing hearts and minds.  We need to take a different path than the fundraising path that so many organizations take.  Time is money and if we can get people who are not rich but who will devote time and effort, we won’t need billions of advertising dollars to defeat trump.

If you think I am being too harsh in my criticism of the Democratic Party and you need more proof of what I am saying, then regard the following Democratic responses to the rather bold move by Rep Al Green to speak out against trump.  The Democrats are subsequently considering joining an effort by the Republican Party to censure Rep Al Green.  You might expect this kind of behavior from the Republicans, but it is from the Democrats themselves who are willing to censure Rep Green for his behavior.  They should be giving him a medal.

“What [Green] did was inappropriate — and he became the story, not the price of eggs,” a centrist House Democrat said.

Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine) and Don Davis (D-N.C.) said they are undecided about censuring Green.

Rep. George Latimer (D-N.Y.) said he felt the disruptions were “inappropriate.”  He said, “When a president — my president, your president — is speaking, we don’t interrupt, we don’t pull those stunts.” 

How many Republicans have ever been willing to censure Bobick or Green for their antics during Biden’s presidency?  How many people spoke out against Adolf Hitler when he was speaking?

A give you a part of Patrick Henry’s “Give Me Liberty or Give Me Death” speech which rings in my ears.  I am taking the liberty to paraphrase it here:

“Trump is destroying our democracy and plans to set up a dictatorship.  And what have we to oppose to him?   Shall we try argument?  We have been trying that for the last ten years with his followers.  Have we anything new to offer upon the subject?  Nothing.  We have held the subject up in every light of which it is capable; but it has been all in vain.  Shall we resort to entreaty and humble supplication?  What terms shall we find which have not been already exhausted?”  

“Let us not, I beseech you, deceive ourselves.  We have done everything that could be done to avert the storm which is now coming on.  We have sued, we have brought felony charges,  we have demonstrated; we have supplicated; we have prostrated ourselves before friends and relatives and have implored their good intentions to arrest the tyrannical hands of trump and his sycophants.  Our petitions have been slighted; our remonstrances have produced additional violence and insult; our supplications have been disregarded; and we have been spurned, with contempt by trump and his followers.”

“In vain, after these things, there are still those who believe trump is bluffing and does not really mean to do what he says in plan 2025.  There are those who indulge the fond hope of peace and reconciliation between opposing political positions.  I say that there is no longer any room for hope.  If we wish to be free– if we mean to preserve inviolate our democracy and its tolerance for the poor, the needy, the minorities and the weak — for which we have been so long contending–if we mean not basely to abandon the noble virtues in which we have been so long engaged, and which we have pledged ourselves never to abandon — we must fight!  I repeat it, we must fight!  Mass resistance is our only avenue, our only means and our only path to destroy this plague which has descended upon our country.”  (My apologies to Patrick Henry)

Only by joining together with all people who believe in morals, ethics, democracy and integrity can we triumph over this scourge which threatens all of humanity.  As Benjamin Franklin so wisely said “Either we all hang together, or we all hang separately.”   

For more information on organizing to prevent an autocratic takeover, see the following document:

Pro-democracy Organizing against Autocracy in the United States: A Strategic Assessment & Recommendations” — Harvard Kennedy School, Faculty Research Working Paper Series by Erica Chenoweth and Zoe Marks

You also might want to call any of the following if they are leaders in your state.

 

Unbreaking America: Solving the Corruption Crisis

Dear Friends, 
 
I am very impressed with this video, the ideas promulgated and the presentation made to support the ideas.  To me it is brilliantly done and executed.  It might provide a pathway out of the morass that we are now experiencing politically in the USA.  Please take 12 minutes to watch this video.  Send it to others if you like it or tell me to go to hell if you hate it.  
 

Peace, Wisdom and a Long and Healthy Life,
John,
Dr. John Persico
612-310-3803
www.agingcapriciously.com

Taking It to Extremes – Part 3 of 5 – Society versus the Economy

Figures to modify for web

Introduction: (Skip if you have read Part 1)

A number of years ago, I wrote an article about the famous “Golden Mean” of Greek philosophy.  The mean was basically a rule that said the best way of living is to balance extremes.  Another way of looking at what this rule implies is that evil or bad things happen when we over do something.  We need to take all things in moderation.  Thus, drugs, smoking, guns, watching TV etc., are not evil or bad in themselves but when we take them to extremes, they became dangerous and counterproductive.

Life is an ongoing struggle to find our proper balance.  However, it may never be a question of equal balance because the proper balance can never be static.  There are many dimensions or polarities in life where it is not really a matter of moderation or balance but more a matter of dynamically imposing a temporary order between two extremes.  The concept of Hegelian Dialectics comes to my mind as an aide in thinking about this process.

Dialectical thinking can be described as: “The ability to view issues from multiple perspectives and to arrive at the most economical and reasonable reconciliation of seemingly contradictory information and postures.”  This is a much more complex process than simply balancing extremes.  The more I thought about it the more I decided to add a corollary to the Greek Rule.  Since I think time has easily proved the value of the Golden Mean, a corollary by definition is a proposition that follows from and is appended to one already proved.  My corollary is as follows:

John’s Corollary:

Anytime, one concept in a set of opposing concepts is allowed to dominate the other concept, extreme dysfunction will result.

I want to discuss this more by using five pairs of concepts that I think are critical to our world today.  I want to show you how the distortion created by proponents of each concept is dangerous to life as we know it.  I do not use the word dangerous loosely or frivolously or for effect.  The battle between these ideas is destroying life as we know it on this planet.   The proponents of each side of these polarities seek to destroy the proponents on the other side.

Rather than looking at things from a systems perspective and trying to dynamically adjust the system, opponents are driven to allow one idea to dominate to the exclusion of the other idea.  Witness the name calling between conservatives and liberals today.  Each side demonizes the other side and assumes God is on their side and Satan is on the other side. Liberals are evil to conservatives and conservatives are evil to liberals.

Here are the five pairs of concepts we will look at in the next few weeks.  This week we will look at number three on my list.  We have already discussed the “efficiency versus effectiveness” dimension in part one of this blog series and the “growth versus development” dimension in part two.

  1. Efficiency versus Effectiveness
  2. Growth versus Development
  3. Society versus the Economy
  4. Conservative versus Liberal
  5. Rights of the Individual versus Rights of the Group
  1. Society versus the Economy:

moses-and-rameses-were-raised-as-brothers-but-took-different-paths-to-become-great-leaders

Today we are faced with an epic pandemic.  This threat has led to a battle between those who want to protect the economy and those for whom society is more important.  This is not the first time such a battle has been waged.  Four thousand years ago Moses battled Ramses over the same issue.  Pharaoh Ramses had cheap labor with the Israelites.  The Egyptian economy was purring along.  Pharaoh did not want to change anything.  The Israelites were not so happy.  Their society was in chaos as it was being slowly but inevitably destroyed by Egyptian culture.  A few hundred more years and there would be no Israelites.  A leader named Moses decided his people must leave Egypt.  He first tried to convince Ramses to simply “let my people go.”  Ramses would have none of this idea.  He had a good thing going with cheap labor and he was not about to rock the boat.

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Moses decided to play hard ball.  He brought a plague to hurt the Egyptians.  Ramses was aggrieved and decided to allow the Israelites to leave.  However, at the last-minute Ramses changed his mind.  It was a question of what would be good for the economy or what would be good for the Israelites.  The economy won out.  Moses brought another plague and then another.  Each time, Ramses would acquiesce and then at the last minute he would change his mind.  He finally let the Israelites leave but once they were “on the road” he had his last-minute regrets again and sent his army to bring them back.  The rest is (as they say) “history.”

Fast forward to the world in 2020.  A pandemic more widespread and as lethal as any in history has struck the world.  The battle is again engaged between leaders like Donald Trump who care more about the economy and leaders who care more about society.  A false dichotomy if ever there was one.  Under John’s corollary, taking either position and ignoring the other position can and will only result in a destruction of both.  You cannot have a society without an economy, and you can not have an economy without a society.  But what is the purpose of each?  What is a society and what is an economy?

relationship-between-culture-and-society-2-638

A society is a group of people, perhaps a tribe, a nation, or a family that choose to live together to share mutual resources.  People that live together beget relationships that involve feelings of community that grow out of common concerns.  These feelings range from love to sometimes hate.  There is a mutual interdependence in a society that implies the good of the society is based on the good of the individual and vice versa.  Societies develop a strong bond based on this mutual interdependence.

An economy is a means of providing resources for a society.  It is the means towards an end.  The end being the perpetuity of the society.  No society can exist without an economy.  Social economies have existed since the cave people and at one point simply involved people hunting and gathering together.  In modern times, we see economies based on a much more complex web of “hunting and gathering.”  The hunting and gathering in a modern society may involve Internet hunting or gathering crops at the local supermarket.

whatstheeconomy

A supply chain exists in modern societies based on what economists’ call “comparative advantage.”  This involves multiple components of a supply chain each doing what they do best.  Farmers raise dairy cattle.  Dairies make milk.  Trucking companies transfer the milk.  Retail stores sell the milk and other dairy products.  Consumers work at some part of a supply chain (there are thousands of supply chains that exist in the world today) to earn money to purchase goods and services sold at one or more other supply chains.  This is a simple version of an economy.  The bottom line is that in the 21st Century, no jobs mean no money.  No money means no ability to purchase goods and services.  Ergo, you starve to death or rely on the charity of your neighbors in your society.

Since the Covid-19 Pandemic began, leaders seem to have chosen sides in a fruitless and ignorant battle between “society” and the “economy.”  Over and over again we have seen leaders propose one extreme position or the other.  “We must shut everything down or we must open everything up!”  In the USA, there has been endless wrangling over a second stimulus bill.  Instead of intelligently looking at the balance between society and the economy, both Democrats and Republicans have used the crisis to further their own goals and agendas.

coronavirus

This lack of leadership of both parties directly dovetails with the lack of leadership set by the former President of the United States.  A man whose own agenda was based on keeping an economy going to further his chances for reelection.  For a man who scorned Marxism and socialism, he realized that the economy always plays a major role in the life of the common person.  He thought that if the economy was going strong, people would overlook the thousands of deaths of their friends and neighbors.  He created a narrative that the entire pandemic was “false.”  The deaths were false.  He claimed falsely that the hospitals were reporting everything as Covid-19 deaths when they were actually due to something else.  I personally talked to many Trump supporters who told me that doctors and hospitals did this because the reimbursement rates were higher for deaths due to Covid-19 than for other causes.

trump on virus magic

I served four years in the United States Air Force.  I learned while in the military that a commander, whether of a battalion, a squadron or a platoon has a major responsibility to keep his soldiers as safe as possible.  Any military leader who recklessly and needlessly puts his or her soldiers in harm’s way will be tried and court martialed for “dereliction” of duty. Following are two examples from a Marine publication titled: “Leadership, Ethics and Law of War Discussion Guide for Marines” by Marine Corps University, Lejeune Leadership (2008)

“The platoon commander was charged with violations of Article 92 (Dereliction of Duty), Article 109 (Willful and wrongful damage to an automobile), Article 118 (Premeditated murder) and Article 133 (Willful and wrongful failure to safeguard the detainees) of the Uniform Code of Military Justice on 1 Feb 2005.”

“1st Lt Lawson was charged with dereliction of duty for failing to account for LCpl Rother’s welfare by posting him alone as a road guide. He was also charged with disobeying an order for two violations: failing to post guides in pairs as Judgment Case Study 5 Dependability Proficiency as directed and failing to provide a roster of the guides to the logistics officer before they were posted.”

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We have a former President who claims to be the Commander in Chief, yet he violated every canon of military law by recklessly and needlessly putting the entire US population in harm’s way by his disregard for the lives of these people.  His actions resulted in the deaths of thousands and yet I hear no outcry for justice.  I hear no strong voices noting his responsibility for these thousands of deaths.  As the primary person responsible for politicizing this Pandemic, he must be held accountable for these deaths.  The liars and sycophants who supported him must also be held accountable.

I blame the Democrats for their continuing stupidity to face reality.  I blame the Republicans for their lack of integrity and for their greed.  Both parties have made the pandemic in the USA much worse than it needed to be.  The lack of courage on one side and the greed on the other side created a perfect storm for the Covid-19 Virus to spread.  As I speak, we are witnessing a spike and increase in cases that seems beyond belief.

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Part of the reason for the increase in Corvid-10 cases has been the rush by both parties to open the schools.  So-called well-meaning educators and health experts even supported this rush.  On one side it was the belief that “day care” was needed to get the economy going again and on the other side, it was the need for teachers and schools to regain income.  Both sides used such flimsy excuses as “students need socializing” and would not get it at home or “students would fall behind” if they did not have direct contact with teachers.  No one ever defined what “socializing” children means or how schools accomplish this.  As for students falling behind, were they talking about their ability to take these ridiculous standardized state tests which add little or nothing to a student’s ability to think and reason for themselves?   No one ever defined what these children would be “falling behind.”

I realize that I have digressed from my original thesis.  To sum it up, a failure to balance the needs of both the society and the economy has led to disastrous results.  Add to this, the overall lack of leadership by the US President and both parties and we have a crisis that has never before been witnessed in the USA.  Some of these same problems beset the rest of the world.  The stupidity we have seen is not simply a manifestation of American ignorance, greed, and short-sightedness.  The world abounds in bad leadership.  Will we learn anything from our mistakes?  Will we admit that we were so polarized that neither side would listen to the other side?  Will we make progress under a new President?  Only time will tell.

Trump’s End Game Strategy to Win the Election

The pundits and leading Democrats are howling that Donald Trump is off the rails.  They are crying out that he is deranged.  That he is incompetent and that perhaps the 25th Amendment should be invoked to remove him from office.  Recent tweets by Trump to indict Obama, Hillary and Biden for treason seem to be evidence to support his derangement.  However, nothing could be further from the truth.  Trump is not deranged nor crazy nor any more incompetent than he has ever been.  Trump is just not playing by the same rule book that his opponents are using.

Pelosi introduces bill to create a commission on presidential capacity under the 25th Amendment

When I taught strategy, I would show my students that there were two broad categories of strategies.  Predictive strategy is looking ahead.  It is analogous to a chess game where you try to plan as far ahead in terms of what moves your opponent might make.  Emergent strategy “emerges” one move at a time based on the present state of opportunities.  It can also be called an “opportunistic” strategy.  Poker is an excellent example of a game that is best played using an emergent strategy.  A player bets or folds depending on each card that is drawn or what each opponent is doing in the present time.  There is no planning for the future.  A bluff is the most opportunistic of moves in the game of poker. 

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Trump has realized with each passing day that he is down in the polls.  If voting alone were to decide the election, Trump already knows that he has lost.  What his opponents are not fully grasping is that Trump has never played by rules used in a predictive game of strategy.  Trump is a master at playing the political game using opportunistic and emergent strategies.  Trump is like the jazz player or poker player that seizes the moment or even sets up the moment by creating the kind of chaos and confusion which throws his opponents off of their game.

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In Chaos Theory, Complexity Theory or Complex Adaptive Theory as it is also known, opportunities emerge from chaos.  The term Chaos to most people implies that something has gone wrong but operating at the edge of chaos is actually especially useful.  It is now an accepted fact that all large and complex systems adapt through chaos.  Systems must find the right balance between order and chaos.  Chaos opens up avenues for change, innovation and evolution that help systems bring order to a new environment or a new set of opportunities.  Donald Trumps game can open up opportunities that he can exploit.  Staying in the game as it is now evolving is a sure lose for Chump.  However, by stirring the pot enough, by creating enough pandemonium, confusion and chaos, the game may then present opportunities that he can exploit. 

One such opportunity that many are afraid of is that he will simply not step down.  However, there are opportunities that could emerge even before the election that he could exploit.  For instance, if Trump were to declare martial law, he could suspend the election and enact draconian measures designed to suppress future challenges to his position.  Martial law has been used before.  Alan Dershowitz notes the constitution is “Quite surprisingly silent on the issue of martial law and emergency powers.”  He goes on to say the following:

“What then could we reasonably expect from our courts if any American president during a period of dire emergency were once again to suspend important constitutional safeguards?  Our experiences suggest the following outline. The courts, especially the Supreme Court, will generally not interfere with executive handling of a genuine emergency while it still exists. They will employ every technique of judicial avoidance at their disposal to postpone decisions until the crisis has passed.” — The Hill, Does President Trump have power to declare martial law?, 6-3-2020, Alan Dershowitz.

IF the above comment does not scare you, then consider that the most recent poll shows 92 percent of Republicans are still planning to vote for Trump.  Would these Republican Senators who have supported his lies, immorality, incompetence, and lack of ethics act any differently than they have for the past four years to curb Trumps potential abuse of power?  When the polls are still showing 92 percent of Republicans support Trump, I doubt that there would be any support among Republicans to stop Trump from declaring martial law. 

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Many of Trump’s supporters would like to see him elected for life.  A large number of Americans do not believe in Democracy.  This is a fact that too few people have really grasped.  The USA is in a battle for its soul and that soul is called democracy.  Donald Trump is playing a game that his opponents do not understand.  Instead of thinking of him as crazy, they should realize that he is crazy like a fox.  Trump has gained power and will do anything he can to keep it.  Remember the famous quote by Lord Acton:

“Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men, even when they exercise influence and not authority: still more when you add the tendency or the certainty of corruption by authority. There is no worse heresy than that the office sanctifies the holder of it.” — Lord Acton, 1887

Wake up Democrats before it is too late.  The only way to beat Trump is to recognize the game that he is playing and to change the playing field.  It is unlikely that you will be able to beat him at his own game. 

“If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected .” ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Please share this blog.  I would like to see that more people understand what Trump is trying to do.

PS:  See this article published on 11-12-20.  

“It’s exactly what I would have expected Trump to do. But even more troubling than what amounts to a straight-up coup attempt is the behavior of the rest of the Republican Party, which (aside from a handful of exceptions) is backing him to the hilt. Trump’s plot seems unlikely to work, but he is establishing a dire precedent.” — Ryan Cooper, The Week  

https://theweek.com/articles/949360/trumps-willing-accomplices

 

 

 

Why Vote for Biden and Harris?

Yes, I know, the Democrats will take our guns away.  They will let the starving hordes of immigrants ravage our country and steal our jobs.  The Democrats will support the killing of unborn children.  They will raise our taxes and prevent us from becoming rich like Trump.  The Democrats will allow unions to take control of our businesses and destroy free enterprise. 

Last week, my wife and I drove to Tomahawk Wisconsin to visit some friends.  We drove via Hwy 8 and returned via Hwy 64.  Just for fun, we decided to count political signs going and coming.  Going we limited our sign counts to 1 sign per home passed.  Most if not all Trump supporters have more than one sign in their yards.  Some have flags and gigantic Trump signs.  We even passed two guys on a street corner waving Trump signs.  When we arrived at Tomahawk the score was Trump signs 41 and Biden signs 21.  On the way back, we counted all signs regardless of how many were on one property.  The score was 219 Trump signs to 25 Biden signs.  Nearly a 10-1 advantage.  Clearly a lot of people in rural Wisconsin like and maybe even love Trump.  Non-Trumpers are confused, perplexed, and bewildered.  What is there to like about Trump they ponder just as many people ponder the heavens and stars?

I have always been an independent.  I vote the person, not the party.  I sometimes call the Dems, the party of Wimps and the Republicans, the party of Greed.  I think of both parties as the Democans and the Republicrats or Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum.  What did the Democrats do for the rural white non-college working class older voter?  Support for diversity, Gay marriage, NAFTA, Immigration, climate change and social welfare programs do not hit the mark with people in the hinterlands like Northern Wisconsin. 

So along comes a Savior riding a Mercedes golf cart, living in a Florida mansion befit for a king and supporting a trophy wife, the envy of every male or at least straight male in America.  He will bring jobs back, keep out the ravaging hordes of rapist immigrants, stick it to the Chinese, lower taxes, make everyone rich again, protect our unborn children, keep at least one gun in every house and perhaps most of all “drain the swamp.”  The swamp as we know it is full of college educated brainwashed left-wing pedophiles and socialist bureaucrats.  People who do not really work for a living but are blood suckers thriving on your tax money.  None of your friends, relatives or neighbors live in the swamp.    

So, given all the great things that Donald Trump will do, why will I vote for Biden and Harris?  Simply because character matters.  The ends can never justify the means.  I have no illusions that Biden will drain the swamp or that he does not have his warts and blemishes.  He is no hero to me, nor do I foolishly believe that he will make America great again.  The only thing that will make America great or keep America great is when 100 percent of Americans get off their butts and get involved in the political process.  In the last presidential election, only about 61 percent of Americans took the time and effort to pull themselves away from their TV screens and vote.  We need to make changes in government, but it will only happen when we take the political process out of the hands of the lobbyists and career politicians.

 So why will I vote for Biden and Harris?  Because character does matter.  Morality matters.  Compassion matters.  Concern for people more than money matters.  Appealing to my humanity and not my fears or greed matters.  I loath bureaucracies.  I too want a safe place to live.  I want to see jobs for people that want jobs and I don’t want to see freeloaders given a handout.  But I also believe that Jesus said to feed the hungry and help the poor:  “If anyone has material possessions and sees a brother or sister in need but has no pity on them, how can the love of God be in that person?”  1 John 3:17. I do not think this means only your neighbors or your friends or relatives.  I think it means strangers, foreigners and people who may not be the same color or religion as we are.  I do not think Jesus wanted us to discriminate between Black people, Red people, Brown people or any other people on the face of the earth. 

So why will I vote for Biden and Harris.  I think we made a big mistake four years ago.  The swamp is even bigger now than it was then.  The greed in Washington is ever worse.  The political infighting ensures that nothing gets done.  The lawyers seem to control everything, and corporations have grown richer on the backs of the working people that live in both rural and urban areas.  These fat cat corporations have no loyalty to America but are “International” in scope.  “America First” sounds great to many of us but it is a selfish policy that appeals to our sense of fear and greed.  We need a leader with a vision that embraces humanity and does not demonize people or pit one group against another no matter where they live.  We need a leader that respects all people and not just his base of supporters and the sycophants that in my day were called brownnosers for good reason. 

I have been as disappointed by the Democrats as many of you have over the years.  However, I will vote for Biden and Harris because I get a sense of character and integrity from both of these two candidates.  They are not heroes.  People get the government they deserve.  If you want heroes or heroines, watch the Avengers, or read Marvel comic books.  But character, morality, compassion, and humanity are the only things that have ever made America great.  Vote for who you believe has the right stuff but vote my friend. 

3520 – Wednesday, September 11, 2019 — Can We Ever Understand the Trump Phenomenon?

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Pontificating and writing books and articles about what I will call the Trump phenomenon has become (forgive my use of this cliché), a Cottage Industry.  I have three books on my shelf right now in which an author has gone on a quest (to a remote area of America) to find the reason why so much of rural and middle America embraced Trump.  The ostensible goal of these quests is to understand why anyone would vote for a racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic bigoted egomaniac.  Fully twenty-eight percent of American voters selected Trump as well as more than 75 percent of the Republican Party.  Most of those on the left, regard it as the proverbial enigma wrapped in a riddle.

Many of these quests endeavor to be “objective” exercises to find out why Americans voted for and in many cases “love” Trump.  Not surprisingly, these authors tend to be on the left of the political spectrum.  I suppose to be objective and qualify as research, each author must show sympathy for the “deplorables” that elected Trump by trying to listen, empathize and gently understand the forces that were at work in their embracing Trump.  In one case, the author assumes that if you can party with the other side, you will better understand their perspective. 

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A few of these books have sold quite well, even if they do very little to shed any real light on the Trump phenomenon.  They all seem to be researched (research to these authors means meeting with rural folks over tea or coffee and talking to them without insulting their intelligence) by a well-meaning liberal.  Usually, the author is an academic who thinks that talking to anyone who would vote for Trump can solve the puzzle and perhaps make America great again.  Reading these books, you will be no doubt be embellished with many narratives that involve a poignant description of a “typical” rural American to show how the other side really lives and how sad some of their lives are.

I find the solution to the enigma much less puzzling and much less difficult to solve.  I did not need to go on a quest to find the solution.  The solution simply involves “looking at rural America.”  Rural America is dying, dying, dying.  Churches are dying.  Restaurants are dying.  Retail stores are dying.  Industries are dying.  Banks are dying.  Resorts are dying.  Jobs are dying.  Small farms are dying.  Rural America is dying, and no one seems to notice.  Even the people living there do not really notice.  It is a case of the fish being the last ones to see the water.  But on many levels, the angst exacts a toll on the citizens of these areas.   Alcoholism, drug addictions and guns are all means of coping in rural communities.  

People who live in many of many of these rural depressed areas have been told to “get retrained.”  “Find employment in the new emerging industries.”  “Join the information age.”  “Learn computer programming.”  “Go back to school.”  “Go where the jobs are.”

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In 1979, I was hired as a DVOP (Disabled Veterans Outreach Person) by the State of Minnesota.  I worked as a job counselor with the DES (Department of Economic Security.)  At about this time in Minnesota, the iron range was shutting down, many foundries in St. Paul were closing and the stock yards were closing.  For years, these industries had provided relatively decent pay and benefits for people more amenable to working with their backs than with their intellects.  As an employment counselor with a Masters in Employment Counseling from the University of Wisconsin Stout, my job was to help them regain financially viable employment.  Here is what this meant.

I had to take a man (most often a man) with twenty or so years working in one industry, a bad back, little or no education beyond high school, responsible for supporting a wife and two or more children and find him or her a job paying twenty or so dollars per hour with benefits.  There were no funds provided by DES for this man to go to school and even if there were, what kind of school could he go to?  Over the years, both Wisconsin and Minnesota had shut down many vocational training schools to emphasize college over vocational education.  Unions seldom provided apprenticeships and even if they did, most would go to younger workers with less physical problems. 

Globalization was hailed as a great concept and as a business person, I would argue it was good for many Americans and much of the world.  But for the man or woman who worked in American industries that were either outsourced, replaced by foreign labor or moved overseas, it was not so good. 

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I continued working as an employment counselor for the DILHR (Department of Industry, Labor and Human Relations) in Wisconsin.  I had taken a Wisconsin State test and found work closer to my home in River Falls, Wisconsin.  I became a Manpower Counselor II in charge of an office in Hudson and Ellsworth Wisconsin.  I ran the WIN Program (Work Incentive), IHRAP Program (Indochinese Refugee Assistance Program), LEAP Program (Labor Education Advancement Program) and several programs for veterans and minorities. 

We had minimal funds for people that could qualify for education and we had maintenance funds for eligible job seekers to help support them while they looked for gainful employment.  With respect to education, there was no way anyone could go to school and support a family while they were in school on the available funds.  For job seekers, the maintenance funds could help while they looked for employment but, in many cases, they had little chance of finding employment without further education.  Regulations prohibited many of these “eligible” job seekers from going to school while they received AFDC (Aid to Families with Dependent Children), Welfare benefits or unemployment benefits.

Bottom line, both the Democrats and Republicans threw many of the people who lost their jobs because of Globalization under the bus or over the cliff.  “Go get retrained they were told.” 

694940094001_5470675642001_5470650547001-vsThe research that purports to explain the Trump phenomenon almost never goes beyond the “Right Wing” narratives for Trumps election.  These narratives all point to abortion, guns, taxes, small government, immigration and jobs as the key factors in Trumps victory.  Trump blames the Democrats for everything wrong in rural America and the Republicans have provided a compelling set of schemes that have convinced many in rural America that a partial solution to their problems lies in more capitalism. 

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Greed is good is a mantra among Republicans and they have managed to sell desperate people needing desperate measures with faith in the “Trickle Down Theory.”  For those who might question this theory, the fallback narrative is to blame immigrants, Latinos, Blacks and Muslims with usurping the American Dream.  Trump and the Republicans have sold the rest of the solution as “Make America White Again.” 

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Is it any wonder that people are sick of government and politicians?  The vision and mission of most government agencies hardly ever comes close to matching the reality of the policies, laws and regulations that spew forth from these lawyer led entities.   You would be forgiven for not realizing that the citizens of the United States of America are the customers of government rather than the other way around.  Trump is a phenomenon of distrust, disgust and despair.  Trump promised solutions to these problems while the rest of the government slept and slept and slept.

“I’ve always resented the smug statements of politicians, media commentators, corporate executives who talked of how, in America, if you worked hard you would become rich. The meaning of that was if you were poor it was because you hadn’t worked hard enough. I knew this was a lie, about my father and millions of others, men and women who worked harder than anyone, harder than financiers and politicians, harder than anybody if you accept that when you work at an unpleasant job that makes it very hard work indeed.”  ― Howard Zinn, You Can’t Be Neutral on a Moving Train: A Personal History of Our Times

 

 

 

 

 

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