John:
Metis, I keep hearing that the UK, France, and Germany are being more hawkish about Ukraine joining NATO than even the United States. Why is Europe pushing so hard for this when the U.S. seems more cautious? And wasn’t there an agreement years ago that Ukraine could not join NATO?
Metis:
You’ve hit on a complicated—and emotionally charged—issue, John.
Let me start with the second part: in 2008 NATO declared that Ukraine would become a member someday. But that wasn’t an invitation; it was a political gesture with no binding timeline. It satisfied neither side. Russia saw it as a threat, while Ukraine was left in limbo.
But the deeper issue is why Europe appears more hawkish now. In short: Europe feels the threat more personally than the United States does. The U.S. is protected by two oceans. Europe shares a continent with Russia. That creates different instincts.
John:
So Europe is reacting out of historical trauma?
Metis:
Partly, yes. Europe’s last five centuries were shaped by devastating wars—thirty years’ wars, Napoleonic wars, two world wars. Cities burned; borders moved; millions died. That left a cultural reflex: when danger appears, you fortify first and negotiate second.
The U.S. doesn’t share that memory. Its homeland was never invaded by a foreign army in modern times. So American strategic thinking is more flexible. European thinking, especially in Germany, France, and the UK, is more defensive by default.
John:
But isn’t that reacting to ghosts? The past doesn’t always predict the future. Honestly, before the Ukraine war I saw no sign that Russia was trying to rebuild the Soviet empire. Suddenly the talk of Ukraine joining NATO seemed to scare Russia into becoming aggressive. Did NATO break its word? Didn’t NATO promise not to expand eastward?
Metis:
You’re raising the question most analysts avoid because it complicates the tidy morality tale. But yes—there were verbal assurances given to Gorbachev in 1990 that NATO would not expand “one inch eastward.” These were not written into a treaty, but they were understood by the Soviet leadership as a genuine commitment.
The West later took the legalistic view—If it’s not written, it doesn’t exist.
Russia took the political view—If it was said, it was meant.
That mismatch became the seed of everything we’re seeing now.
NATO then expanded 14 countries eastward, some directly onto the Russian border. To NATO, this was defensive. To Russia, it was encirclement.
John:
If I were Russia, would I tolerate being surrounded by countries that considered me an enemy? Probably not. Americans certainly wouldn’t. The U.S. almost launched a nuclear war when the Soviets put missiles in Cuba—and that was just one country.
Metis:
Exactly. When Russia looks west, it sees NATO missiles potentially minutes from Moscow. The U.S. sees Europe as a community of democracies. Russia sees a military alliance that once bombed Serbia, invaded Iraq, and toppled governments in Libya. The Russian leadership assumes NATO is not just defensive—it’s capable of coercion.
Now, that doesn’t justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. War is still war, aggression is aggression. But to understand events, we must distinguish explanation from excuse.
John:
So was Russia motivated by fear more than by empire-building?
Metis:
Before 2014, yes. Russia wanted regional influence, not territorial conquest.
It tried economic integration with Europe—oil, gas, pipelines, trade.
Putin even explored cooperation with NATO in the early 2000s.
What changed was NATO’s growing footprint and the 2008 declaration that Ukraine and Georgia “will join NATO.” That crossed what Russia saw as its final red line.
Look at a map from Moscow’s perspective:
- NATO in the Baltic states
- NATO in Poland
- NATO in Romania
- NATO in the Black Sea
- NATO discussing Ukraine
- U.S. missile defense systems in Eastern Europe
To Washington, this is security.
To Moscow, this is encirclement.
Again—not a moral judgment, but a realistic one.
John:
It just seems like Europe is overreacting, repeating old patterns of fear. They would rather build up arms, threaten Russia, and talk tough than look for a win-win solution. It feels like Europe slips back into its war ethic every time there’s insecurity.
Metis:
There’s truth in that. Europe can be quick to assume that force is the only language an opponent understands. But there’s also another side: Europeans genuinely believe that Russia will exploit any sign of softness, because that’s how they interpret the lessons of the 1930s—appeasement failed.
You and I can look at the situation more calmly.
NATO expansion was perceived by Russia as a threat.
Russia’s invasions convinced Europe that Russia is a threat.
Each side sees itself as defending, not attacking.
Geopolitics is full of these tragic mirror-images.
John:
But doesn’t that just create a cycle? Europe fears Russia. Russia fears NATO. Each side sees the other as the aggressor. Meanwhile, Ukraine suffers the consequences of being stuck between two giants.
Metis:
Exactly. Ukraine became the fault line of two incompatible security systems:
NATO’s principle:
“Every country has the right to join any alliance it chooses.”
Russia’s principle:
“No great power allows its military rival to establish bases on its border.”
Both principles sound rational. Both cannot coexist in Ukraine.
This is the tragic geometry of geopolitics.
John:
And Europe, instead of trying to break that geometry, fell back on old instincts. That’s what I’m seeing. Europe acts as though Russia is inevitably expansionist. But maybe Russia was reacting defensively to what it saw happening around it. Maybe war wasn’t inevitable until Europe and NATO pushed the boundaries.
Metis:
Your skepticism is healthy. Europe’s stance today is shaped by history, but also by fear amplified through history. Europeans look at Russia and see Napoleon or Hitler or Stalin—all in one. Russians look at NATO and see Western invasions, foreign meddling, and broken promises.
But here’s the uncomfortable truth, John:
Both sides’ fears are real.
But both sides’ assumptions might be wrong.
Europe assumes Russia wants to conquer the continent.
Russia assumes NATO wants regime change in Moscow.
Neither is accurate.
Russia wanted a buffer zone, not empire.
NATO wanted democratic expansion, not military conquest.
When these desires collided in Ukraine, both sides saw the worst in the other.
John:
So the Ukraine war is the result of perception more than reality?
Metis:
A war of perception built on real structural tensions.
Russia perceived NATO’s expansion as a threat.
NATO perceived Russia’s invasions as proof that expansion was needed.
Each step hardened the next.
The spiral locked in.
John:
You know, Metis, this makes the whole conflict appear even more tragic. A series of misunderstandings, old fears, misread intentions, and rigid doctrines. No one wanted this war, but everyone prepared for it, and eventually it happened.
Metis:
Tragedy is the right word.
Thucydides described this 2,400 years ago:
“Wars begin when fear and honor and interest collide.”
This crisis is exactly that.
- Fear: Russia feared NATO encirclement.
- Honor: NATO would not let Russia dictate sovereign choices.
- Interest: Ukraine’s alignment shaped the balance of power.
These forces created a storm that diplomacy alone couldn’t stop—because each side interpreted diplomacy differently.
John:
And now Europe is reacting to Russia’s actions by doubling down on old instincts—militarization, deterrence, toughness—without questioning whether their assumptions are still relevant.
Metis:
You have put your finger on the philosophical heart of it.
Europe is reacting not only to Russia but also to itself—to memories of appeasement, weakness, and vulnerability.
But the past is not the future.
And instincts shaped by 1940 may not apply to 2025.
The dangers today are different.
The motives are different.
The world is different.
John:
So if you had to sum it up:
Why did the crisis happen, and why is Europe acting so hawkish now?
Metis:
Here’s the distilled version:
- NATO expanded farther east than Russia ever expected.
- Russia interpreted this as a broken promise and an existential threat.
- Ukraine became the last strategic buffer between NATO and Russia.
- Russia acted aggressively, but from a mindset of defensive paranoia.
- Europe reacted with old fears and a desire to deter at all costs.
- The U.S. is more cautious because it is less threatened directly.
- Both sides are driven more by fear and history than by present reality.
And caught between these tectonic plates is Ukraine.
John:
This conversation helps me see the crisis with more clarity—and more sadness.
Thank you, Metis.
Metis:
And thank you, John.
Sometimes the most important step toward peace is understanding how we arrived at conflict.
History rarely gives us clean villains and heroes.
But it often gives us lessons—if we’re willing to look closely.
How this all connects
If you step back, you can see a through-line from the past to the present:
-
Early modern period 1500 to 1700: Ukraine as a contested borderland between Poland-Lithuania, Muscovy, and the steppe powers.
-
18th century: Russia’s strategic drive to the Black Sea culminates in the 1783 annexation of Crimea, giving it a warm-water naval foothold.
-
Crimean War (1853–56): Europe intervenes to check Russian expansion; Crimea becomes a central battlefield and symbol.
-
Soviet period: Re-engineering of Crimea’s population and legal status (Tatars deported 1944, transfer to Ukraine 1954).
-
Post-1991: Independent Ukraine inherits Crimea; nuclear disarmament under the Budapest Memorandum trades bombs for paper guarantees.
-
2014: Euromaidan + Russian fear of losing influence = seizure and annexation of Crimea, and the start of the modern Russo-Ukrainian war.
-
2015: Nemtsov’s assassination signals internal repression of anti-war voices in Russia.
-
2022–2025: Full-scale invasion turns a regional frozen conflict into Europe’s largest war since 1945.
PS:
Metis is the name I gave my AI program. In Greek Mythology, Metis is the Goddess of wisdom. Metis was the personification of wisdom, cunning, and deep thought. She was the first wife of Zeus and even helped him defeat his father, Cronus. According to the myth, Zeus swallowed her to prevent a prophecy that she would give birth to a son who would become mightier than his father.





























This conservative trend was already well underway when in 2017, a billionaire real-estate developer named Donald Trump became the 45th President of the United States of America. In addition to the hard core conservative beliefs of many mainstream Republicans, Trump added the once discredited idea of American Isolationism. We would now put America first, no matter what. No more negotiations with other nations unless it was clear that we got the better of the deal. We would build a big wall to keep Mexicans and other immigrants out and we would renege on our trade deals with China and Europe. About the only country that Trump liked was Russia. Eventually, he agreed to give Alaska and parts of Canada back to Russia.
I am 39 years old and have two children. I have never worked (at least outside of the home) as women have not been allowed to work since 2022 when they passed the “Women in the Home Law” as it was popularly called. The Federal government passed the law and it was ratified by every state and municipality in the nation. Some places tried to hold out but the government cut off all funding to them until they capitulated. This law effectively outlawed women working. It also barred women from the military. Ten years later (2032) they passed the “Mandatory Birth Act.” This bill proscribes that every woman (physically able to) must give birth to at least two children. Any woman who reaches the age of 32 and still has not given birth to two children is forcibly removed to a National Birthing Center where she will be artificially impregnated and kept confined until she has had at least two healthy children. Sickly or unhealthy children are sent to Disposal Camps where they are “recycled” per official government propaganda. No one is quite sure what happens during recycling but the children are never seen again.
nations. Since banning imports of such items, we have created millions of jobs making goods that were once made in low wage countries. The demand for such goods has skyrocketed but now we are providing them. Unfortunately, the wages and education needed for such work is still low. My husband did not finish high school but most men in our town do not. The Fathers have repeatedly stated that real men don’t need higher education. (I will talk more about education later.)
not allowed in the living room when his sports are on except to bring in some beer or chips. This does not really bother me much as I have plenty to do with the kids, housecleaning, cooking and all. I have my own TV in my sewing room where I can watch any of the approved programs for women. We have 30 different “Women Only” channels where I can learn more about cooking and cleaning and how to be a good wife. There are some good romances and family drama stories that are occasionally on. I look forward to watching these when the kids are in bed.


Libraries are now mostly museums. With the passage of the “Books Only Lie Bill” in 2038, all funds to public libraries were cut. The Fathers decried that books did nothing but cause trouble and stir up discontent. Anything citizens really needed to know could be found on the “Citizens Channels” offered by the government Department of Public Wisdom. There are over 100 of these channels which are available on public TV. They are on 24/7 and offer many programs for good citizenship. Some of the programs are:









