Have you ever felt that you were not pretty enough, smart enough, coordinated enough, talented enough, handsome enough, strong enough or fast enough? If so, you were suffering from the “inadequacy paradigm.” A paradigm is a model or template for thought or behavior. Feeling inadequate is one of the major paradigms of American society. The marketplace wants you to feel inadequate because then they can sell you products and services that will make you feel “ADEQUATE.”
There are beauty products, breast enhancements, hair implants, plastic surgery, expensive cars, perfume, jewelry, large homes, designer clothes, college degrees and many other products or services designed to help you feel less inadequate and more adequate. We all want to feel adequate which means we must somehow learn to escape or jettison our inadequacy paradigms. The marketplace strategy involves spending huge amounts of money on a regular basis to escape the “inadequacy paradigm.” This strategy is often a failure as money and products cannot provide for real happiness or address some of the cultural biases, prejudices, racism and bigotry that contribute to the “inadequacy paradigm.”
“A fascist is one whose lust for money or power is combined with such an intensity of intolerance toward those of other races, parties, classes, religions, cultures, regions or nations as to make him ruthless in his use of deceit or violence to attain his ends.” — Henry A. Wallace
When I was growing up in New York City during the fifties, many of the popular singers were Italian. There was Fabian, Frankie Avalon, Connie Francis, Dion, Dean Martin and many others. Most of the famous male singers had traditional Italian good looks being tall dark and handsome. My father (6’ 4” tall) fit this model but my mother was Irish. I (much to my chagrin) took after my mother. I was short (5’ 8”) light skinned, brown thin hair with very nondescript looks. No woman ever looked at me twice in high school. I did inherit a good brain and cannot attest which side it came from. Nevertheless, brainy nerdy intellectual guys had no more demand among the attractive high school girls in the fifties and sixties than they do now. Beauty would seem to always trump brains in our society.
Now there are many different aspects or subdivisions of the “inadequacy paradigm.” There is a division for Blacks, Latinos, women, disabled, intellectuals, old people and of course poor people. If you belong to any one or more of these categories there are special rules that will be directed to you to help you feel even more inadequate than average. (Racism and Xenophobia create their own paradigms of inadequacy which go well beyond Madison Avenue but are supplemented by Madison Avenue to a large degree). As a White male growing up in an Italian neighborhood, my complaints will not doubt seem trivial to individuals in these other “inadequacy categories.” Let’s look at each group and see if we can perhaps walk a mile in their shoes. What would it be like if you were in one of these other categories. Now, one caveat must be shared. If you are White and rich, you will probably be able to escape the most noticeable effects of the “inadequacy paradigm.” For rich White folks, money provides a means to ameliorate the more consequential effects of inadequacy. Money can’t buy you love but it can buy you many other things to make you feel better.
African Americans:
What is it like growing up Black in America in the 21st Century? Has years of Affirmative Action, Civil Rights and even a Black President mitigated the effects of the “inadequacy paradigm” for our African American citizens?
I decided to approach a Black man who was walking down my street. I started to walk towards him and I yelled out “Hey, I need to talk to you.” He immediately threw up his hands, laid on the ground and starting shouting “Hands up, don’t shoot.” I hollered out “I am not a cop.” He got to his feet and said “Sorry, just an instinctive reaction. How can I help you?” “Well, I said, I just wanted to ask you what it was like being “Black in America today?”
Brian Lipscomb, IT Professional and Web Programmer/Website Designer
“Once I got off a trolley in downtown Philadelphia and accidentally bumped into an older White woman. She immediately said “Here! Take my purse! Just don’t hurt me!” I was shocked. I couldn’t believe that she thought I was going to rob her. When walking down the street, if a White woman is walking in my direction, they often cross the street or clutch their purse more tightly as I approach. I guess I’m numb to it now, because I expect it. I think that’s the sad part. There is nothing post-racial about our society. Racism and prejudice have just become more subtle, more nuanced.”
Latinos:
Many Latino people in the USA have been residents since before the Pilgrims arrived. With the annexation of Mexican Territory after the Mexican American War and the subsequent Gadsden purchase, many former Mexican citizens elected to become American Citizens. The border between Mexico and the US was porous for many years with much travel back and forth.
Many Mexican Americans have families and friends still living in Mexico. There has always been a White bias towards Mexican Americans and others from south of the border but recently this bias seems to have escalated. Part of the reason for this lies in the drug wars but much of it is rooted in a xenophobia directed to Latinos who do not have traditional Northern European customs. Latinos have become an increasingly larger segment of the population in many Southwestern cities.
But what is it like being a Latino? We know that with the election of Donald Trump and his talk of building a border wall and deporting “Latino Rapists” that he has fanned the fears of xenophobia common among many Southwestern Whites. There is no doubt that numerous Latino people residing in the Southwest and other parts of the USA are now uncertain about their future as US citizens.
Brittany Escalera, College Student
“Being born in the United States, I am automatically a citizen. I am an American. But according to society, I’m “too” Mexican to be American. My complexion is too dark to be American. My dark hair and dark eyes are too Mexican to be American. I’m Mexican, therefore, I can’t be American…. Yet it’s not always just the language barrier that is a struggle, there are constantly stereotypes and racial slurs being put on us everyday. Being from the south, I had to work extra hard at breaking this. No not all Mexican’s are illegal. Sorry Trump, we are not all the criminals, drug dealers and rapists that you claim us to be.”
Women:
Of course, I cannot speak for being a Woman in America. But I do not have to be female to see that Women must also suffer from the “inadequacy paradigm.”
“As Sheryl Sandberg and Adam Grant pointed out in a recent New York Times op-ed, when male executives speak up, they receive 10% higher competence ratings; when female executives do the same, their ratings from their peers are 14% lower. Similarly, when male employees offer ideas, they receive higher performance evaluations; when women offer the same ideas, managers’ perceptions of their performance remain unchanged.” — What’s holding women back?
If the bias in the workplace is not bad enough to insult many women, the bias they face in the home is even worse. The rates of domestic abuse and rape in American society are shameful. But perhaps the worse indicator of the “inferiority paradigm” for women lies in the number of women who think they deserve such treatment.
“The cultural acceptance of spousal abuse can be so pervasive that in some countries, large majorities of women say it’s acceptable. In Rwanda, 96 percent of women say the practice can be justified, according to the World Values Survey. About two-thirds of women in India and South Africa feel the same way. The attitude is also held by large shares of women in countries across the religious and cultural spectra — China, Egypt, Iraq, Nigeria, Peru, the Philippines and Uzbekistan, to cite a few.
Even in countries where the vast majority of women don’t approve of spousal abuse, the share that do find it potentially acceptable isn’t exactly tiny. It’s about 1 in 10 in the U.S. and about 1 in 5 in Germany.” — Alarming Number Of Women Think Spousal Abuse Is Sometimes OK — NURITH AIZENMAN
Many women are now worried in the USA due to the election of a President who openly bragged about his right to grab a women’s “pussy” because he was rich and privileged. Many of his supporters were men and women who belong to fundamentalist religions that believe women have no place in politics or in the business world and that their only role is to bear children for men. Thus, after years of battling to achieve equality with men, women now face the prospect of losing many of the hard-earned rights that they fought for and won.
Disabled:
One of my best friends committed suicide about a year ago. He was a Cerebral Palsy victim who had dedicated his life to helping fight for more rights for disabled people. He walked crablike and had to use walking sticks to keep his balance. His head was always cocked at an odd angle due to his disability. He was two years younger than I was and died at the age of 67. Brian took his own life because he could fast see a time approaching when he would no longer be able to live on his own. Brian was a fiercely independent man who struggled to obtain dignity in a society that does not always respect people who are disabled.
I first saw Brian when he would come into the town bakery to buy donuts or for lunch. I was usually sitting with a bunch of locals who knew Brian and several had gone to school with Brian. I was uncomfortable with the way they seemed to greet Brian and their response towards him. It became disagreeable enough to me that I stopped my morning coffee sessions with this group. Instead, I found a group of people at the library who met for coffee each day. Brian was among the group at the library and we became good friends.
Brian told me many stories of how he was treated as though he was mentally disabled rather than physically disabled. On several occasions that we went out together, it was clear that people wanted to avoid dealing with Brian. For Brian, it must have felt like being a leper. I am sure that much of the bias towards Brian was not intentionally hateful. Nevertheless, it still was difficult for Brian to deal with. Brian wanted to be treated as a normal person and not someone with a disability. His strong desire to be normal ultimately led to his ending his life.
The following chart shows the changes in employment for disabled people in the USA since 1991. Notice the “progress” is backwards.
Intellectuals:
If you have not read Hofstadter’s “Anti-Intellectualism in America Life” I heartily recommend it. I have often joked that the worst discrimination in America seems to be saved for people who think. Many companies trumpet their desire for “out of the box” thinkers. This is usually nothing more than a well parroted display of self-deception. What Human Resources and the company are really looking for is “people who fit in.” People who are iconoclasts, people who are critical thinkers, people who rock the boat “need not apply here.”
Intellectuals include nerds, free thinkers, geeks and anyone who works with ideas as opposed to building things or throwing things. Academics are often lumped in with this category since most people assume an academic to be a brilliant thinker. This is very often a misplaced assumption. People in the arts including music and theater are often very intellectual but they somehow manage to escape the opprobrium reserved for pure thinkers.
If you think I am exaggerating on the bias that is reserved for intellectuals, you should turn on any right wing talk show like Rush Limbaugh or Sean Hannity and listen to them for a while. It won’t be long before they are attacking commie pinko faggot intellectuals for all the problems in America.
“There is a great superficiality in today’s evangelical world. Many Bible-believing Christians share the contemporary case for self-gratification, emotionalism, and anti-intellectualism. Many people who believe in the Bible have never read it.” — Gene Edward Veith Jr.
I must mention one of the dumbest stupid-ass TV shows I have ever seen. It is the epitome of anti-intellectualism in America today. It is called the “Big Bang Theory.” It is supposedly about genius and of course the geniuses in this show have Ph.D.’s but absolutely no common sense or interpersonal skills. They are also geeky with no athletic skills and about zero muscle mass on their puny frames. This show portrays how much of America views intellectuals.
“Our big mistake in modern intellectualism is first and foremost its lack of nuance. We have made science synonymous with atheism – a presupposed conception and yet, another means to non-sequiturs – and therefore, to a number of enthusiasts determined to go the further, anti-theism. Hereby let us observe that science has long served best and should be, if none other, the one discipline, if at all possible, free of potential ideology, religious or anti-religious, and/or biased presupposition in order to maintain the authenticity and the reliability of its nature.” —– Criss Jami
Elderly:
Every so often, my wife and I like to go to a Pow Wow. I remember one of the first we went to and they had a free dinner for all attendees. As we stood in line waiting our turn to get up to the food table, a young man came up and said “Oh Elders go to the front of the line.” I said “I am not a Native American.” He said “It did not matter” and escorted my wife and I to the front of the line with the other Elders. Other Pow Wows that I have attended have had a special line for Elders. I was pretty much blown away by this deference. It was totally unexpected but greatly appreciated.
Many venues and shops have discounts for seniors or “Senior Days” where food is cheaper or there are discounts for those over fifty-five or sixty. I am not impressed by these as you and I know it has nothing to do with “respect” for the elderly. It has more to do with getting more of our money. Respect for the elderly seems to be dwindling the older I get.
Both my wife and I have noticed that increasingly when we go to a clinic anymore with a health problem such as a sore hip or sore shoulder, we often get responses like “Oh, it is just part of getting old, you will just have to live with it.” Instead of investigating to see if some our problem might be amenable to treatment, we are simply told to more of less “suck it up.”
“There is also a lack of recognition of the positive contributions that elderly people make to society. The amount of unpaid childcare provided runs into the tens of billions. Without this form of labor, fewer parents could work and gain fulfillment in their jobs. Indeed, as some local authorities have recognized the 60 plus generation offer a huge reservoir of untapped energy for the voluntary sector.” — Why do we treat elderly people so badly? — By Paul Donovan
Poor:
The “poor” otherwise known as lazy, drug addicts, stupid, trailer trash, welfare bums, welfare cheats, handout recipients, bag people, curb people and homeless. The poor in America are thought by many to be poor by choice and not by chance. This makes it much easier to denigrate them and to blame them for their poverty. When someone picks their lifestyle, it is much harder to be sympathetic for the choices they have made.
In 1978, I had finished my Master’s Degree in Counseling and I took a position as a Manpower Counselor II with the State of Wisconsin in the Department of Industry Labor and Human Relations or DILHR as it was known then. My job entailed working with the WIN or Work Incentive Program to help families who were receiving welfare (AFDC or Aid to Families with Dependent Children) find gainful employment so they could get off Welfare. I also worked with the Indochinese Refugee Assistance Program (IHRAP) and the Labor Education and Advancement Program (LEAP) to help mainly Southeast Asian refugees in the IHRAP program and women and minorities in the LEAP program find jobs. I worked with several other job training programs as well. The bottom line of all my programs and effort was to help people find employment by which they would become self-sufficient.
Now there are two interesting points I want to make gleaned from my two years working in these programs with mostly poor and under-privileged people.
- None of the programs really went far enough in their benefits or stipends or financial assistance to really help as much as was needed by my clients.
I am not going to say that many benefits were not helpful. We could offer financial incentives to employers, daycare benefits, transportation help and even some educational benefits. These were in addition to the monthly welfare checks that many families were receiving. Nevertheless, the key to getting off welfare was to provide enough education to help the client to break out of the cycle of poverty. Only education would help those who wanted to climb the proverbial “ladder of opportunity.” Unfortunately, the ladders that were being provided never seemed to have enough rungs in them. Whether through stupidity, frugality or simply underestimating what was needed, many people could not get enough help to break out of poverty.
- Ninety Percent of my clients wanted to get off Welfare.
There is a pernicious and vicious myth that most people on Welfare like it and want to stay on it. Nothing, could be further from the truth. I worked with hundreds of Welfare clients and the clear majority (90 percent or better) wanted to find a good job and become self-sufficient.
Yes, I encountered some Welfare cheats and some Welfare dependent people who had little or no incentive to gain employment and lose their Welfare checks. However, these were a small minority of the clients that I saw in my two years working with the WIN program. Even these individuals often had severe handicaps either physically or mentally which would have made holding gainful employment near impossible. The average person does not realize how many barriers and hardships face some of the poor in this country.
“Saving our planet, lifting people out of poverty, advancing economic growth… these are one and the same fight. We must connect the dots between climate change, water scarcity, energy shortages, global health, food security and women’s empowerment. Solutions to one problem must be solutions for all. — Ban Ki-moon
Conclusions:
We have a pervasive problem that I labeled the “Inadequacy Paradigm.” Much of it is caused by racism, xenophobia, prejudice, stereotypes and bigotry. The majority of it is systemic and will need major changes in policies and institutions in this country to eliminate. However, it is felt on a very personal level. Feelings of inadequacy may be conveyed by others and cultural mores but they are received by an individual who assimilates these feelings into their psyche. Thus, inadequacy becomes a personal problem and not simply a social problem. Inadequacy is not “out there” it is right inside. The vast numbers of suicides in our society are testament to the inadequacy that many of our fellow citizens feel. This includes Whites as well as minorities.
- Suicide is the tenth leading cause of death in the USA
- 44,000 people die every year by suicide (2015)
- White males accounted for 7 of 10 suicides in 2015.
What can we do to overcome these problems? Clearly education and social support systems must be developed and deployed. If we see the problem of inadequacy as something that is “not my problem” nothing will be done. We have people who refuse to spend one dime of their taxes to help others because of selfishness and greed. We have many who want to label America as a Christian nation, but they do not practice Christianity.
Any church that does not practice tolerance for the oppressed, charity for the poor and compassion for the needy, regardless of what religion they belong to, should not call themselves a Christian church. They should call themselves a HATE church. Hate leads to prejudice and bigotry and these are the primary factors in the Inadequacy Paradigm. Destroy prejudice and bigotry and we will create a society with many more well-adjusted people.
Time for Questions:
What makes you feel inadequate? Why? What do you do about it? How do you think you could help others who feel inadequate?
Life is just beginning.
“I have had to experience so much stupidity, so many vices, so much error, so much nausea, disillusionment and sorrow, just in order to become a child again and begin anew. I had to experience despair, I had to sink to the greatest mental depths, to thoughts of suicide, in order to experience grace.” — Hermann Hesse
Marching forward in time to the period of the Revolutionary war when George the III was ruler of the American Colonies, what did they think of King George? Here is what is written in the Declaration of Independence:
Crime bosses get eliminated or changed in a number of ways. Some die. Some are murdered. Some are arrested. Few if any ever simply retire. This last fact is good for our law enforcement agencies, since it helps keep them occupied with finding and catching Mafia leaders.
Each time we kill one of their leaders, another one pops up to take their place. Each enemy group we defeat seems to be immediately replaced by another enemy group. Our Army, Navy Air Force, Marines, armament industries and politicians never seem to get tired of playing the “Whack a Mole” game. Keep in mind, that while the game might be great fun for these groups, there is a cost to the game. To date the financial and human costs are:
Karen says that I should start our annual holiday letter off because I write better than she does. Well, since it is the holiday season, I will let her slide. For my part, (Karen will add hers in a short while), I promise not to talk about politics, religion or philosophy. We are all sick of politics and you are probably only marginally interested in the latter two topics. What’s left then? Well, I was thinking that I just turned 70 in September. I never believed that I would see 30 years of age. Now here I am 4 decades later pondering the same mysteries of life that I pondered forty years ago. Feeling a little nostalgic, I got to thinking about the “firsts in my life.” For instance, my first kiss and my first job. So how about participating in a little nostalgia here and fire up your memories as well. I have posted a list of “my firsts” with my responses to each item. List is on the left with my responses to each one on the right. Can you remember your answers to my list? I would love to hear your list of firsts. Please post your FIRSTS in the comments section if you can remember what they are and don’t mind sharing.
Hi all. I think I’ll stick with my firsts for the past year. My first Dulcimer Jamboree in April, 2016 in Mountain View AR where I met the dulcimer 9 years ago. A fateful meeting it was. My first chromatic travel dulcimer which I took with me to New York in Nov. My first raised bed garden this past summer made from old discarded stock tanks. It produced more food than we could eat and it was so easy to weed and harvest. My first grandson, Garrick, getting married to Kat this coming spring. My first viewing of an opera at the Metropolitan Opera in NYC. My first concert in Carnegie Hall. My first trip up the Statue of Liberty and out to Ellis Island to look for ancestors.
It’s been a full, fun and sometimes exhausting year. We still work part time to support our “snow birds” lifestyle. I’m working with start-up home care agencies, teaching and consulting, and ICD 10 coding. John has taught both on-line and residence classes. We escaped our part time work with trips down to Kentucky for Kentucky Music Week, trips to the ocean in Puerto Penasco, Mexico, and a fall anniversary trip to Bayfield, WI. And, of course, the trips back and forth from WI to AZ where John tries to find new unspoiled routes each time we go.
Jesus talked about the three classes of good people. The first class hears his message but has little time to do anything about it. The second class hears the message and when convenient they try to help others and spread the message of Jesus. The third class commits their body and soul to sharing Jesus’s message. The third class of men/women make a commitment to doing this year round and 24/7. For the third class, it is not a onetime thing or something to be done when they have time or are not busy. It is a lifetime commitment to share his message with the world.
The Joy of Christmas is a state of fulfillment, contentment and gratitude. Through the love of others who give selflessly of themselves, we can all be free to experience a Joy that cannot be bought or traded. It is one of the reasons that giving and not receiving is said to be the true path to happiness. During the holidays, we are excited about the chance to give to others. And nowhere is that feeling of giving more delightful than in watching the face of a young child receive something that we know they really wanted. However, Joy to the World should mean more than just giving toys to tots. There are physical gifts which we can give but there are also emotional and spiritual gifts as well.
I am frequently critical of all the toy drives that I see going on at Christmastime. Not just because I think most kids in America have more toys than they know what to do with, but because of the message that this sends. Why not I ask, have a “books for tots” drive? Why not give books for a present? Why is it always about toys? We become so narrowly focused that we lose sight of the larger picture.
Thus, Jesus did not come to replace the commandments but he did come to go beyond the commandments. God brought the commandments to Moses but the message that Jesus brought to us is in addition to the commandments. Jesus extended the Ten Commandments with a list that has come to be known as the Eight Beatitudes. A beatitude is something that gives one both happiness and blessedness. Jesus gave these Eight during his famous Sermon on the Mount:
I am continually surprised by so-called Christians who seem to revel in the Ten Commandments but treat the Eight Beatitudes as though they were bastard children of Satan. When was the last time you heard anyone wanting to put up a statue or sculpture or sign with the Eight Beatitudes on it? The Message of Christmas is the Eight Beatitudes. The Joy that Jesus wanted to bring to the world can only come by following the Eight Beatitudes. If you call yourself a Christian but you do not practice these in you daily life, then you are not spreading the Gospel of Jesus.
words of the Beatitudes go beyond any one religion. They speak to a way of being in the world and a way of treating other human beings. Just as I have found valuable teachings in other religions, I think more Christians should be willing to share the Message of Jesus in the Eight Beatitudes. Keep in mind though, that sharing this message will never work unless you also live by the message. You must be the change you want to see in others. Do you know what the famous Indian Chief Sitting Bull said when asked what he thought of Christianity? Chief Sitting Bull replied: “I have read your Bible and the religion seems good but I do not see many White people practicing it.”
Satan: “Do you want to concede and I will just take them all down to Hell?”
God: “The interesting thing about humans is not their stupidity and evilness. It’s the surprising amount of love that they can sometimes show for others. I am ever the optimist. That is my role, to be the Eternal Optimist. I have had hopes since the first cave men and since Moses and Socrates and Jesus and Mohammed and Gandhi and King and Mandela that humans have a spark in them. A spark that when ignited can change themselves and the world into something beautiful. Something that is so beautiful, it is even beyond anything I might have created.”
Satan: “You know I don’t care one way or the other. I have no feelings to be hurt. I cannot gloat or feel any satisfaction. Whenever, a new soul comes down to Hell, it is no sense of pride or satisfaction to me. These humans seem to mistake my logic and justice for evil. I am the parent who dispenses the discipline and they see me as the mean and cruel one.”
Satan: “But they never learn. They are shortsighted, petty, vindictive and greedy. Do you really think they care about your teachings or precious commitment to love and peace? They would rather fight wars and dominate others. They even fight wars in your name. Their religions scream for violence over other religions. Their leaders preach victory over other nations. Their minion’s rape and pillage in the name of some esoteric ideology. They all believe they are superior to each other. They send their own children to die in wars of so called freedom and liberation. They abuse and murder their own spouses at alarming rates. They teach their offspring at an early age to be intolerant of other races. And they pray in your name for the power to be successful in all of these efforts. They invoke prayers to you before murdering millions. How can you listen to these prayers and want to help these hypocrites.”
God: “You count them out too fast. The clock was close to 12 with nuclear weapons but as you noted, they carefully avoided destroying themselves. They are often very shortsighted and many of them will never be long-term thinkers. However, there are enough who care and who are passionate enough about others to help save humanity. I can’t help being filled with astonishment at the love that humans frequently have for each other.”
Denial generally means that we refuse to accept any logic, evidence, experience, data, facts, authority or any other means of Truth finding. It is an outright refusal to accept anything that will change the deniers mind. One example of this is the current debate (at least among some) as to the issue of global warming. Climate deniers argue that there is no change in the overall earth’s temperatures and that the warming is simply consistent with overall weather patterns in the earth’s history. Those opposed to this view point to a considerable stockpile of evidence, facts and data to show that the weather changes are not part of a historical pattern but are indeed a change in past weather patterns. Nevertheless, climate deniers refuse to change their minds.
Thus, we typically ignore or give a pass to someone who is “delusional” because we think either they are sick or that they are not in a good state to make decisions. No sane person would try to talk or argue a person who is delusional out of their Delusions. However, what if the person is sane and they engage in Delusions? This seems impossible but it happens all the time. One example will suffice: Anderson Cooper was interviewing some Trump supporters on his show. He asked one young woman what it was she liked about Trump. Her response was “He is just like us, except he is a billionaire.” Millions of Americans seemed (if voting was any indication) to agree with this statement. To any logical person looking at the background, upbringing and behavior of Trump, this statement would seem ludicrous. It would seem to indicate an extreme case of delusional thinking. But, by all standards of psychiatric analysis, this woman and her supporters are not insane.
The basic premise of the work by Kahneman and others in his field is that while most of us try to be logical and rational, our decision making is often flawed by biases and heuristics that influence our decisions. The book Judgment Under Uncertainty catalogs the major types of cognitive errors that we make and gives many examples of each. One of the most common ones that many people recognize has been called the “Gamblers Fallacy.” Let us say that you are rolling a dice. The odds of any one number being rolled are 6 to 1. So let us say that you roll four three times in a row. What are the odds that you will roll a 4 on your next toss? Higher or lower than 6 to 1? Many if not most people would now assume the odds against rolling another four might be 30 or even 40 to one. In fact, the odds for rolling a four on the next toss are still 6-1. This fact would surprise many people. Mentally, we confuse the odds of an individual toss with the odds of running a series. The odds of rolling four in a row on a dice are much greater than the odds of rolling any particular number. What are the odds of rolling a number four times in a row on a dice? We can calculate it as follows:
After even a slight perusal of these fallacies, you might be thinking: “Why bother, we can never find the Truth, there are too many roadblocks out there.” It probably seems like a hopeless task, something akin to finding the Holy Grail or the Ten Commandments. I admit that the recent Presidential election and its results would seem to support the invincible nature of stupidity and ignorance. The world seems overwhelmed with those who would dwell in biases, bigotry and hypocrisy and have little interest in finding the Truth. The Truth becomes whatever they are told or choose to believe. The media parrots disinformation, misinformation and outright lies. How can anyone find the Truth amidst this forest of propaganda and distortion?
One of the most unnerving but interesting books I have ever read was the book “True Believer” by Eric Hoffer. This book explains the thinking or lack of thinking behind zealots, fanatics and what Hoffer calls “True Believers.” After reading this book, it was clear to me that ideologies, whether left wing, right wing, fascist or even liberal could be dangerous. The Greek Golden Mean “All things in moderation” kept coming to my mind. A “True Believer” will not tolerate or listen to dissent or argument. They are so convinced that their way is the only way that dialogue and discussion with them is fruitless. In fact, many “True Believers” will happily kill you for their ideology.
Furthermore, because our ideologies are so good, we cannot believe that anyone has the right to reject them. We do not care if the rest of the world does not want to share them, we will bomb and kill you until you see how good our ideologies are. We are totally closed minded in our belief that Democracy and Free Enterprise are truly universal virtues that the rest of the world must adopt. We have become a nation of True Believers in the “American Dream.”
Emotional biases are formed by experiences or ideas derived from each of the four categories of knowing and believing that I briefly discussed earlier. We can derive an emotional bias from a strong attachment to anything and it does not matter whether we have Facts, Data, and Evidence. An emotional bias comes from the heart as opposed to a cognitive bias which comes from the brain. Of course, in practice both sets of biases tend to overlap and support each other. Someone with a strong cognitive bias can become very emotional about their beliefs and someone with a strong emotional bias may tend to only accept Facts which support their bias. In either case, we face the same difficulties with trying to get the individual to seek the Truth. Notice, I did not say see the Truth. Perhaps, some or more of what they already believe is the Truth or at least part of the Truth.
I am working to prepare for a chess match with my neighbor. I happen to note in the paper the Fact that tomorrow will be a quarter moon. Does this Fact have any relevance to my playing chess? I don’t think so. Thus, I don’t really care that there will be a quarter moon. As far as my limited cognition or perception, I can see no relevance between the Fact of a quarter moon and my preparing for my chess match. I could be wrong. We can always mis-perceive the relevance of some information to an issue. This is often done in science and in police work. We don’t see the connection between two issues and we misjudge the outcomes. This provides one good reason for diversity and numbers in problem solving. You have less chance of being blindsided if you have a variety of opinions rather than just your own.
Let us look at another example where the issue of relevance is more salient. I am planning to go on a trip to England in 2017. I want to plan my trip for the best possible time of the year. I hypothesize that two Facts or Data points are very important to my planning. The first is the temperatures at various times of the year in England. The second is the rain fall. I found the ranges for this data on a weather site and used the information to plan my trip. Of course, some of the decisions anyone makes will depend on their own weather preferences. I wanted to minimize rainfall and also keep the temperature in a moderate range. What I call sweater weather. Thus, both these set of factors were relevant and important to my planning. I would call them Evidence to support the time of year that I decided to go.
On the other hand, if you like rain, you might have picked a different time of the year than I did. There were other mitigating factors which played a role in my decision making. These factors included costs for lodging during the year and transportation costs during the year. In general, off season times have better rates but are somewhat the worse for weather. Another factor was the value of the pound to the dollar. I considered the value of the dollar to the pound post Brexit but concluded that I did not have enough information to effectively evaluate the impact of this data on my decision. I am assuming that with the volatility involved in the situation, the value of the dollar might go either way against the pound. My best guess is that I will benefit if I go as soon as possible. The news has recently noted that after Brexit the value of the pound fell 14 percent against the dollar. This would mean I could get a significant cost advantage if I purchase anything in England. I am hoping this situation will continue until after my trip but there are too many variables at play here for me to use this information. I can only hope.
A more common example of relevance can be found by looking at police work. We are all familiar these days with what is called Forensic science. I am sure most of you reading this have watched some police show. As soon as a crime is discovered, the Crime Scene Unit (CSI) is brought in to collect Evidence. Keep in mind that everything at a crime scene is not Evidence. Only what may have a possible relationship to the crime. This can be a real problem. The CSI unit is going to be limited by their assumptions concerning what might be relevant. For instance, I doubt any Crime Scene Investigator will care whether or not the light bulbs are “bright” or “soft white” in the kitchen or bathroom. It is impossible to collect all the “Evidence” of stuff that might be related to the crime. Thus, relying on experience and training, the police investigators do their best to collect Facts and Data that appear to be relevant to the crime. The relevant Data and Facts are not just interesting, they are Evidence. The more they relate to the crime, the stronger the Evidence will be.
An eyewitness can provide Evidence via his/her testimony as to the events of a crime. The relevance of any eyewitness is high but the reliability of an eyewitness can be much lower. Second hand testimony is not as relevant as first hand testimony and is thus weaker Evidence. Testimony that might be compromised by some factors such as police record, bias, discrimination, physical disabilities might be relevant but will be weaker Evidence because the validity of the Evidence is suspect. That is why lab procedures and chain of custody is so important to police work. They may have the most relevant Evidence imaginable but if the validity of the Evidence can be comprimised because of sloppy police work, the Evidence will be useless.
It is seldom that findings of Evidence in police work or business are subjected to as much scrutiny as occurred in the so called development of cold fusion. Perhaps, since this was a finding of great scientific importance, it was held to a more rigorous standard than would occur in many other scientific studies. I am thinking in particular of findings in the health field, nutrition field and drug field. In each of these fields we often have much less rigor before results are posted or accepted. Business is even worse with advertisers spouting outright lies and fabrications. Little known phenomenon are routinely heralded as being highly reliable Evidence of the benefit of some product or service that someone wants to sell you. All kinds of spurious Facts and Data are then marshaled as Evidence to support the phony claims by Madison Avenue advertisers.
When I started working with Process Management International in 1986 after completing my doctorate degree at the University of Minnesota, I met the famous quality improvement expert and renowned statistician, Dr. W. E. Deming. Over the next seven years, he had the most profound influence on my life in terms of helping me to understand process improvement, statistics, quality and the use of Data to improve everything from widgets to health care. Under the influence of Dr. Deming, our company adopted his motto “In God we trust, all others bring Data.” Dr. Deming also said “Without Data, you’re just another person with an opinion.” So what is Data? 
If we understand what Data is, you have now entered the deep forest. However, we have a long way to go before we can get out of the forest. There are numerous obstacles along the way. Referring again to the concepts of validity and reliability, we must ask ourselves the same questions we asked about our Facts. Is our Data reliable and valid? How did we collect the Data? What method did we use to collect the Data? Are we taking a few samples each day for several weeks or are we taking a few samples for only a few days? Are we using a random sample or a stratified random sample? Different methods of collecting Data will lead to different results. And we are not even talking about interpreting the Data yet. For instance, when I worked at W.T. Grants cutting shades back in the late 60’s, I was told to make sure I took my measurements with a metal tape measure and not a cloth or plastic measure. The reason given was that it was easier to stretch a cloth tape measure and get a false result. This would lead to cutting a shade that was too large and would not fit.
Unfortunately, the scientific method is not infallible. It is subject to bias and disagreement over Data and interpretations. Even more problematic is that the scientific method is not a strong method when it comes to testing subjective theories that cannot be verified by Fact. For instance, “Is the Mona Lisa beautiful?” As stated, this is a subjective question that each individual will hold a different opinion on. However, if I asked: “Is the Mona Lisa the most beautiful painting in the world?” I could attempt to answer that question with a bit more objectivity. I could conduct a survey to see what percentage of people think it is the most beautiful. Subjective studies are not as strong as objective studies since they usually lead to results that follow a bell shaped curve. Thus, if we conducted the above survey, we would probably find that a certain percentage of people thought it was the most beautiful painting and a certain percentage did not. As in politics, opinions of beauty would be all over the place. This is why politics is so much more difficult to “Fact check” than issues like the atomic mass of hydrogen. Politics is a very subjective field that resists efforts to test and Fact check. Some examples that would be difficult to test with the scientific method would include:
Finally, if I have left you with some understanding of the difficulty with interpreting Data, I will have felt successful. The first step to knowledge is awareness of our cognitive limitations. We also need to be more skeptical when people present us with Facts and Data. My father used to say “Believe nothing of what you hear and half of what you see.” I still consider this good advice. There are too many fools and charlatans out there trying to convince us of things for a multitude of reasons that will benefit them and not us. Just as we would not walk down a dark alley in an unknown city by ourselves, we need to exercise caution when presented with Data and Facts. The more we understand the limits of Data and Facts, the more prepared we will be to make decisions based on Data and Facts that have a higher degree of validity and reliability. If the Data, Facts and Evidence that you base your knowledge on are not accurate than everything you think you know will be at best a half truth and at worst a total lie.
Aging Capriciously 